knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)

library(tweedie)
library(cplm)
library(statmod)

library(rstan)
library(actuar)
library(fishMod)

library(ggplot2)
library(tidyr)
library(dplyr)
library(tibble)
# library(rbokeh)

library(openxlsx)
library(readr)
library(readxl)

library(knitr)
library(kableExtra)
# library(formattable)
library(RColorBrewer) # display.brewer.all()
# library(plotly)
# library(gapminder)

Disclaimer: This document is written by a Cal Insurance intern and is intended for the other members of the intern team as audience. We include detailed documentation and code in hopes of helping the intern better familiarize with working in R as well as open room for improvement moving forward. The analyses contained herein are for internal use within Cal Insurance only.

Completing the Data (Calculating Charged Premiums)

At the start of the project, we are given data from various tables. Consolidating these together into one table involves some simple index(...match(...)...) lines in Excel. This gives us a complete data table claims_history.csv, and all that remains is to calculate the filed premiums for each policyholder over each year from 2013 through 2018.

This can be automated in R in a real workplace setting if multiple .xlsx files are given with a common structure.

# # import base .csv
tbl <- as_tibble(read_csv("/Users/dsury/Dropbox/Actuary/proj/case-comp/GA/ga-csv/claims_history.csv")) # "https://files.dsury.com/claims_history.csv"

# quick kable for this document
qkable <- function(x, height="360px") {
  x %>% kable(format = "html") %>% kable_styling(bootstrap_options = c("condensed", "responsive", "striped", "hover", "bordered"), font_size = 11, position = "center") %>% scroll_box(width="100%", height= height, fixed_thead =  list(enabled = TRUE, background = "lightgrey") ) 
}

tbl[1:20,] %>% qkable()
Vehicle Number Policy Year Policy Number Marital Status Driver Age Driver Age Band Annual Mileage Territory Credit Score Car Value Car Value Band Liability Limit Physical Damage Deductible Reported Losses Late Fees Conviction Points Base Pure Premium Marital Status Relativity Driver Age Relativity Annual Mileage Relativity Territory Relativity Car Value Relativity Liability Limit Relativity Physical Damage Deductible Relativity Multi-Car Multi-Car Relativity Accident Points (AP) last 3 years AP Relativity Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years CP Relativity
6125 2010 1 Single 18 16-19 0-7500 4 High 3220 0-10000 5e+04 100 0 0 1 1500 1.2 3.0 0.7 0.8 0.720 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
10332 2010 1 Married 45 40-49 7500-10000 3 High 20090 20000-30000 5e+05 250 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.000 1.12 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
1965 2010 2 Married 54 50-59 15000+ 1 Medium 13810 10000-20000 1e+05 500 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.880 0.88 1.000 2 0.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
14130 2010 2 Married 49 40-49 10000-15000 1 High 37060 30000-40000 1e+05 100 0 0 1 1500 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.045 0.88 1.080 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
2976 2010 3 Single 31 30-39 7500-10000 4 High 20860 20000-30000 5e+04 250 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.000 0.60 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
76 2010 4 Married 53 50-59 15000+ 2 High 80850 40000+ 5e+04 100 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.080 0.60 1.080 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
8571 2010 5 Single 21 20-24 0-7500 3 Low 5610 0-10000 1e+05 500 0 0 0 1500 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.9 0.720 0.88 1.000 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
8530 2010 6 Single 28 25-29 7500-10000 2 High 20000 20000-30000 5e+04 250 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.000 0.60 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
6104 2010 7 Single 33 30-39 0-7500 1 High 13020 10000-20000 5e+04 500 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.880 0.60 1.000 2 0.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
12468 2010 7 Single 27 25-29 0-7500 2 High 26350 20000-30000 1e+05 250 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.000 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
1547 2010 8 Married 52 50-59 0-7500 4 Low 39180 30000-40000 5e+05 1000 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.12 0.935 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
736 2010 9 Married 49 40-49 10000-15000 4 Medium 30150 30000-40000 1e+05 500 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.045 0.88 1.000 3 0.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
12236 2010 9 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 4 Medium 22600 20000-30000 5e+04 100 0 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.000 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
14398 2010 9 Single 47 40-49 0-7500 3 Medium 28950 20000-30000 5e+04 1000 0 0 0 1500 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.000 0.60 0.935 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
6386 2010 10 Single 16 16-19 7500-10000 2 Low 1020 0-10000 5e+04 100 0 0 0 1500 1.2 3.0 0.9 1.1 0.720 0.60 1.080 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
5284 2010 11 Married 27 25-29 7500-10000 3 High 1270 0-10000 1e+05 250 0 0 0 1500 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.720 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
999 2010 12 Married 65 60-69 10000-15000 3 Medium 62030 40000+ 1e+05 500 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.080 0.88 1.000 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
1553 2010 13 Single 37 30-39 15000+ 2 High 39430 30000-40000 3e+05 500 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.045 1.00 1.000 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1
8480 2010 14 Single 20 20-24 7500-10000 3 High 23570 20000-30000 5e+04 100 0 0 0 1500 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.000 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
10430 2010 14 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 2 High 11020 10000-20000 1e+05 250 0 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.880 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 -1 -1

Setting (Ordered) Factor Levels

Before going further into exploratory data analysis, we must treat our categorical variables (bands and groups) as factors in R. For our ggplots and GLM to function as desired, we assign orders to the variables.

# set factor levels and order

tbl$`Marital Status` <- factor(
  tbl$`Marital Status`, levels= sort(unique(tbl$`Marital Status`), decreasing = TRUE), ordered = TRUE # 1 : single, 2 : married
)

tbl <- tbl %>% mutate(`Driver Experience` = `Driver Age` - 15) # gives ceiling of driver experience years, includes instructional period prior to license

tbl <- tbl %>% mutate(`Driver Experience Band` = `Driver Age Band` )

tbl$`Driver Experience Band` <- recode(tbl$`Driver Experience Band`, 
       `16-19` = "0-3",
       `20-24` = "4-8",
       `25-29` = "9-13",
       `30-39` = "14-23",
       `40-49` = "24-33",
       `50-59` = "34-43",
       `60-69` = "44-53",
       `70-79` = "54-63",
       `80-89` = "64-73",
         `90+` = "74+"
       )

tbl$`Driver Experience Band` <- factor(
  tbl$`Driver Experience Band`, levels = c("0-3", "4-8", "9-13", "14-23", "24-33", "34-43", "44-53", "54-63", "64-73", "74+"), ordered = TRUE
)

tbl$`Annual Mileage` <- factor(
  tbl$`Annual Mileage`, levels = c("0-7500", "7500-10000", "10000-15000", "15000+"), ordered = TRUE
)

tbl$`Credit Score` <- factor(
  tbl$`Credit Score`, levels = c("Low", "Medium", "High"), ordered = TRUE
)

tbl$`Car Value Band` <- factor(
  tbl$`Car Value Band`, levels = c("0-10000", "10000-20000", "20000-30000", "30000-40000", "40000+"), ordered = TRUE
)


tbl$`Policy Year` <- factor(
  tbl$`Policy Year`, levels = as.character(2010:2020), ordered = TRUE
) # maximum is 2018, but we'll go to 2020 here


tbl$`Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years` <- factor(
  tbl$`Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`, levels = 0:3, ordered = TRUE
)

tbl$`Accident Points (AP) last 3 years` <- factor(
  tbl$`Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`, levels = 0:3, ordered = TRUE
)

tbl$Territory <- factor(
  tbl$Territory, levels = 1:4, ordered = FALSE # make un-ordered to allow permutation in GLM
)

Assuming we are in California (Cal Insurance), for regulatory compliance, we know that the filed premiums use certain relativities and exclude certain information. Particularly, California’s Proposition 103 requires that we calculate rates via sequential analysis using a primary set of three factors:

Primary Auto Rating Factors

  1. Driver Safety Record
  2. Annual Mileage
  3. Years Licensed (Driving Experience)

These above 3 factors must be used before considering other variables from the following prescribed list of “optional factors”:

Optional Factors

  1. Type of vehicle
  2. Vehicle performance capabilities
  3. Type of use of vehicle (pleasure only, commute, business, farm, etc)
  4. Percentage use of the vehicle by the rated driver
  5. Multi-vehicle households
  6. Academic standing
  7. Completion of driver training or defensive driver courses
  8. Vehicle characteristics (engine size, safety devices, theft deterrent devices, etc)
  9. Marital status
  10. Persistency
  11. Non-smoker
  12. Secondary Driver Characteristics (combination of: Safety Record, Years Licensed, Marital Status, Driver Training, and Academic Status)
  13. Multi-policies with the same or affiliated company
  14. Relative claims frequency (maximum of 20 categories/bands)
  15. Relative claims severity (maximum of 20 categories/bands)

Notice that gender, Credit Score, and driver’s age are not on this prescribed list and hence cannot be used as rating factors. However, with Driver Age, we can transform this easily into Driving Experience with the simplifying assumption that all registered policyholders begin driving at age 16. We exercise actuarial judgment here that although this is a biased transformation, it is the simplest and most transparent.

Because our later analyses are not applied to any immediate compliance filings, we use Driver Age and Driver Experience interchangeably as they are equivalent (simply offset by -16) and this variable does not involve the above assumption.

Technically, there is a mandatory “Good Driver Discount” (GDD) of at least \(20\%\) compared to “the lowest rate available to a comparable driver who is not a good driver.” Moreover, the calculation of factor weights is also regulated. Lacking information on these specifications, we choose not to make assumptions and modifications here.

As given by insurance.ca.gov, for Sequential Analysis via the Prior Relativities Method under the Multiplicative Algorithm, we have:

\[ \text{Premium} = \text{(Base Pure Premium)} \times F_1 \times F_2 \times F_3 \times GDD \times F_4 \times \cdots \times F_k\] where \(F_1, F_2, F_3\) are the relativites for the first, second and third factors in sequential analysis, respectively, all the way until the \(k\)th.

Ratemaking is prospective, meaning that we are estimating future claims and not recouping for past losses. Because we are only interested in the historical losses versus charged premiums, for our purposes we need not reinvent the Sequential Analysis technique used to arrive at the given values of relativities.

Recall the balancing fundamental insurance equation:

\[ \text{Premium} = \text{Loss} + \text{LAE} + \text{UW Expenses} + \text{UW Profit}. \]

In Excel, to get the Premium per policy, we first calculate the premium per vehicle for each year via:

\[ \begin{align*} \text{Premium} &= \text{(Base Pure Premium)} \times \text{[(3 yr Accident Points)} \times \text{(3 yr Conviction Points)]} \\ & \qquad \times \text{(Annual Mileage)} \times \text{(Driving Experience)} \times \text{(Physical Damage Deductible)} \\ & \qquad \times \text{(Liability Limit)} \times \text{(Car Value)} \times \text{(Multi-Car)} \times \text{(Marital Status)} \times \text{(Territory)} \end{align*} \]

where each factor multiplied to Base Pure Premium is the relativity of that factor.

Here’s an exhibit of the filed prices, loaded in from doing inputting the above formula into Excel. Notice these are adjustments to the Base Premium.

prems <- as_tibble(read_csv("Dropbox/Actuary/proj/case-comp/GA/ga-csv/filed_premiums.csv")) # "https://files.dsury.com/filed_premiums.csv"
prems[1:20,] %>% qkable()
Policy Number Vehicle Number Premium Policy Year Marital Status Driver Age Driver Age Band Annual Mileage Territory Credit Score Car Value Car Value Band Liability Limit Physical Damage Deductible Reported Losses Late Fees Conviction Points Base Pure Premium Marital Status Relativity Driver Age Relativity Annual Mileage Relativity Territory Relativity Car Value Relativity Liability Limit Relativity Physical Damage Deductible Relativity Multi-Car Multi-Car Relativity Accident Points (AP) last 3 years AP Relativity Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years CP Relativity Driver Experience Driver Experience Band
1 6125 1218.9981 2013 Single 21 20-24 0-7500 4 High 3220 0-10000 5e+04 100 200.0692 0 0 1500 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.720 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 1 1.2 1 1.2 6 4-8
1 10332 1023.8659 2013 Married 48 40-49 7500-10000 3 High 20090 20000-30000 5e+05 250 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.000 1.12 1.045 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 33 24-33
2 1965 963.4775 2013 Married 57 50-59 15000+ 1 Medium 13810 10000-20000 1e+05 500 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.880 0.88 1.000 2 0.9 0 1.0 0 1.0 42 34-43
2 14130 1144.1295 2013 Married 52 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 37060 30000-40000 1e+05 100 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.045 0.88 1.080 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 37 34-43
3 2976 812.5920 2013 Single 34 30-39 7500-10000 4 High 20860 20000-30000 5e+04 250 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.000 0.60 1.045 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 19 14-23
4 76 886.8372 2013 Married 56 50-59 15000+ 2 High 80850 40000+ 5e+04 100 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.080 0.60 1.080 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 41 34-43
5 8571 2069.2869 2013 Single 24 20-24 0-7500 3 Low 5610 0-10000 1e+05 500 10121.7588 0 1 1500 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.9 0.720 0.88 1.000 1 1.0 1 1.2 1 1.2 9 4-8
6 8530 1608.9322 2013 Single 31 30-39 7500-10000 2 High 20000 20000-30000 5e+04 250 28602.5937 1 1 1500 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.000 0.60 1.045 1 1.0 1 1.2 1 1.2 16 14-23
7 6104 718.5024 2013 Single 36 30-39 0-7500 1 High 13020 10000-20000 5e+04 500 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.880 0.60 1.000 2 0.9 0 1.0 0 1.0 21 14-23
7 12468 1784.3918 2013 Single 30 30-39 0-7500 2 High 26350 20000-30000 1e+05 250 0.0000 0 1 1500 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.000 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 0 1.0 2 1.4 15 14-23
8 1547 588.3086 2013 Married 55 50-59 0-7500 4 Low 39180 30000-40000 5e+05 1000 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.12 0.935 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 40 34-43
9 736 565.0022 2013 Married 52 50-59 10000-15000 4 Medium 30150 30000-40000 1e+05 500 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.045 0.88 1.000 3 0.8 0 1.0 0 1.0 37 34-43
9 12236 470.2925 2013 Single 53 50-59 0-7500 4 Medium 22600 20000-30000 5e+04 100 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.000 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 0 1.0 0 1.0 38 34-43
9 14398 508.9392 2013 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 3 Medium 28950 20000-30000 5e+04 1000 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.000 0.60 0.935 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 35 34-43
10 6386 3990.7676 2013 Single 19 16-19 7500-10000 2 Low 1020 0-10000 5e+04 100 6483.2473 0 0 1500 1.2 3.0 0.9 1.1 0.720 0.60 1.080 1 1.0 3 1.6 0 1.0 4 0-3
11 5284 772.2874 2013 Married 30 30-39 7500-10000 3 High 1270 0-10000 1e+05 250 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.720 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 0 1.0 1 1.2 15 14-23
12 999 821.1456 2013 Married 68 60-69 10000-15000 3 Medium 62030 40000+ 1e+05 500 0.0000 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.080 0.88 1.000 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 53 44-53
13 1553 2234.6280 2013 Single 40 40-49 15000+ 2 High 39430 30000-40000 3e+05 500 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.045 1.00 1.000 1 1.0 0 1.0 0 1.0 25 24-33
14 8480 1700.6112 2013 Single 23 20-24 7500-10000 3 High 23570 20000-30000 5e+04 100 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.000 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 0 1.0 0 1.0 8 4-8
14 10430 1538.2186 2013 Single 54 50-59 10000-15000 2 High 11020 10000-20000 1e+05 250 0.0000 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.880 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 0 1.0 1 1.2 39 34-43

Before we look into the premium structure, we’ll take a quick detour to understand more about the data and the factors.

1. Data Cleaning: Validation and Investigation

Here we’ll perform a pivot on our data. Our given data is very ‘tall’, with repeated entries. We notice that the Vehicle Number entries are periodic, where we have \[135,000 \text{ total rows of data} = 15,000 \text{ rows} \times 9 \text{ years}.\] Because we’ve sorted by Policy Year (PY) and Policy Number, each ‘block’ of 15000 rows corresponds to a year (we confirm this in data validation, but this will be evident in a moment). We’ll break these apart with pivot_wider().

# just run once

# rearrange to compare years
# select(tbl, `Vehicle Number`, `Policy Year`, `Marital Status` )
if  (names(tbl)[2] != "Policy Year") { print("Error: Make sure tbl has Policy Year as second column!") }

# tblnames <- c()

# generate tibbles
for (i in names(tbl)[- c(1,2) ]) {
  assign( paste0("tbl.",i), 
          select(tbl, `Vehicle Number`, `Policy Year`, i) %>%
            pivot_wider(names_from = "Policy Year", 
                        values_from = i,
                        names_prefix = paste0(i, " PY"))
          )
  # tblnames <- c(tblnames, paste0("tbl.",i))
  print(i) # debugging
}

This gives us a number of tables, one for each original column. A couple of examples is shown below. Notice that each row no longer has the Policy Year column, and now each row contains data for each year (as opposed to multiple rows before corresponding to the same Vehicle Number).

Now we’ll stitch these together back into a consolidated database. We’ll generally keep the same order as given in the original .xlsx file.

for (k in tblcols) {
  tbl.wider <- tbl.wider %>% left_join( k )
}
tbl.wider[1:20,] %>% qkable()
Vehicle Number Policy Number PY2010 Policy Number PY2011 Policy Number PY2012 Policy Number PY2013 Policy Number PY2014 Policy Number PY2015 Policy Number PY2016 Policy Number PY2017 Policy Number PY2018 Marital Status PY2010 Marital Status PY2011 Marital Status PY2012 Marital Status PY2013 Marital Status PY2014 Marital Status PY2015 Marital Status PY2016 Marital Status PY2017 Marital Status PY2018 Driver Age PY2010 Driver Age PY2011 Driver Age PY2012 Driver Age PY2013 Driver Age PY2014 Driver Age PY2015 Driver Age PY2016 Driver Age PY2017 Driver Age PY2018 Driver Age Band PY2010 Driver Age Band PY2011 Driver Age Band PY2012 Driver Age Band PY2013 Driver Age Band PY2014 Driver Age Band PY2015 Driver Age Band PY2016 Driver Age Band PY2017 Driver Age Band PY2018 Annual Mileage PY2010 Annual Mileage PY2011 Annual Mileage PY2012 Annual Mileage PY2013 Annual Mileage PY2014 Annual Mileage PY2015 Annual Mileage PY2016 Annual Mileage PY2017 Annual Mileage PY2018 Territory PY2010 Territory PY2011 Territory PY2012 Territory PY2013 Territory PY2014 Territory PY2015 Territory PY2016 Territory PY2017 Territory PY2018 Credit Score PY2010 Credit Score PY2011 Credit Score PY2012 Credit Score PY2013 Credit Score PY2014 Credit Score PY2015 Credit Score PY2016 Credit Score PY2017 Credit Score PY2018 Car Value PY2010 Car Value PY2011 Car Value PY2012 Car Value PY2013 Car Value PY2014 Car Value PY2015 Car Value PY2016 Car Value PY2017 Car Value PY2018 Car Value Band PY2010 Car Value Band PY2011 Car Value Band PY2012 Car Value Band PY2013 Car Value Band PY2014 Car Value Band PY2015 Car Value Band PY2016 Car Value Band PY2017 Car Value Band PY2018 Liability Limit PY2010 Liability Limit PY2011 Liability Limit PY2012 Liability Limit PY2013 Liability Limit PY2014 Liability Limit PY2015 Liability Limit PY2016 Liability Limit PY2017 Liability Limit PY2018 Physical Damage Deductible PY2010 Physical Damage Deductible PY2011 Physical Damage Deductible PY2012 Physical Damage Deductible PY2013 Physical Damage Deductible PY2014 Physical Damage Deductible PY2015 Physical Damage Deductible PY2016 Physical Damage Deductible PY2017 Physical Damage Deductible PY2018 Reported Losses PY2010 Reported Losses PY2011 Reported Losses PY2012 Reported Losses PY2013 Reported Losses PY2014 Reported Losses PY2015 Reported Losses PY2016 Reported Losses PY2017 Reported Losses PY2018 Late Fees PY2010 Late Fees PY2011 Late Fees PY2012 Late Fees PY2013 Late Fees PY2014 Late Fees PY2015 Late Fees PY2016 Late Fees PY2017 Late Fees PY2018 Conviction Points PY2010 Conviction Points PY2011 Conviction Points PY2012 Conviction Points PY2013 Conviction Points PY2014 Conviction Points PY2015 Conviction Points PY2016 Conviction Points PY2017 Conviction Points PY2018 Base Pure Premium PY2010 Base Pure Premium PY2011 Base Pure Premium PY2012 Base Pure Premium PY2013 Base Pure Premium PY2014 Base Pure Premium PY2015 Base Pure Premium PY2016 Base Pure Premium PY2017 Base Pure Premium PY2018 Marital Status Relativity PY2010 Marital Status Relativity PY2011 Marital Status Relativity PY2012 Marital Status Relativity PY2013 Marital Status Relativity PY2014 Marital Status Relativity PY2015 Marital Status Relativity PY2016 Marital Status Relativity PY2017 Marital Status Relativity PY2018 Driver Age Relativity PY2010 Driver Age Relativity PY2011 Driver Age Relativity PY2012 Driver Age Relativity PY2013 Driver Age Relativity PY2014 Driver Age Relativity PY2015 Driver Age Relativity PY2016 Driver Age Relativity PY2017 Driver Age Relativity PY2018 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2010 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2011 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2012 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2013 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2014 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2015 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2016 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2017 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2018 Car Value Relativity PY2010 Car Value Relativity PY2011 Car Value Relativity PY2012 Car Value Relativity PY2013 Car Value Relativity PY2014 Car Value Relativity PY2015 Car Value Relativity PY2016 Car Value Relativity PY2017 Car Value Relativity PY2018 Liability Limit Relativity PY2010 Liability Limit Relativity PY2011 Liability Limit Relativity PY2012 Liability Limit Relativity PY2013 Liability Limit Relativity PY2014 Liability Limit Relativity PY2015 Liability Limit Relativity PY2016 Liability Limit Relativity PY2017 Liability Limit Relativity PY2018 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2010 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2011 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2012 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2013 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2014 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2015 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2016 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2017 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2018 Multi-Car PY2010 Multi-Car PY2011 Multi-Car PY2012 Multi-Car PY2013 Multi-Car PY2014 Multi-Car PY2015 Multi-Car PY2016 Multi-Car PY2017 Multi-Car PY2018 Multi-Car Relativity PY2010 Multi-Car Relativity PY2011 Multi-Car Relativity PY2012 Multi-Car Relativity PY2013 Multi-Car Relativity PY2014 Multi-Car Relativity PY2015 Multi-Car Relativity PY2016 Multi-Car Relativity PY2017 Multi-Car Relativity PY2018 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2010 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2011 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2012 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2013 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2014 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2015 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2016 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2017 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2018 AP Relativity PY2010 AP Relativity PY2011 AP Relativity PY2012 AP Relativity PY2013 AP Relativity PY2014 AP Relativity PY2015 AP Relativity PY2016 AP Relativity PY2017 AP Relativity PY2018 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2010 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2011 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2012 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2013 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2014 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2015 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2016 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2017 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2018 CP Relativity PY2010 CP Relativity PY2011 CP Relativity PY2012 CP Relativity PY2013 CP Relativity PY2014 CP Relativity PY2015 CP Relativity PY2016 CP Relativity PY2017 CP Relativity PY2018 Driver Experience PY2010 Driver Experience PY2011 Driver Experience PY2012 Driver Experience PY2013 Driver Experience PY2014 Driver Experience PY2015 Driver Experience PY2016 Driver Experience PY2017 Driver Experience PY2018 Driver Experience Band PY2010 Driver Experience Band PY2011 Driver Experience Band PY2012 Driver Experience Band PY2013 Driver Experience Band PY2014 Driver Experience Band PY2015 Driver Experience Band PY2016 Driver Experience Band PY2017 Driver Experience Band PY2018
6125 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 16-19 16-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 High High High High High High High High High 3220 3220 3220 3220 3220 3220 3220 3220 3220 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0.000 0.0000 200.0692 0.0000 0.0000 12602.418 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 -1 -1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0-3 0-3 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 9-13 9-13
10332 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 High High High High High High High High High 20090 20090 20090 20090 20090 20090 20090 20090 20090 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
1965 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 60-69 60-69 60-69 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium 13810 13810 13810 13810 13810 13810 13810 13810 13810 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 44-53 44-53 44-53
14130 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 High High High High High High High High High 37060 37060 37060 37060 37060 37060 37060 37060 37060 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
2976 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 High High High High High High High High High 20860 20860 20860 20860 20860 20860 20860 20860 20860 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
76 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 60-69 60-69 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 High High High High High High High High High 80850 80850 80850 80850 80850 80850 80850 80850 80850 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 44-53 44-53
8571 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 5610 5610 5610 5610 5610 5610 5610 5610 5610 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0.000 0.0000 10121.7588 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 9-13 9-13 9-13 9-13 9-13
8530 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 25-29 25-29 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 High High High High High High High High High 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0 0.000 0.0000 28602.5937 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 70200.000 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 9-13 9-13 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
6104 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 40-49 40-49 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 High High High High High High High High High 13020 13020 13020 13020 13020 13020 13020 13020 13020 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 24-33 24-33
12468 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 High High High High High High High High High 26350 26350 26350 26350 26350 26350 26350 26350 26350 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 -1 -1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 9-13 9-13 9-13 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
1547 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 60-69 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 39180 39180 39180 39180 39180 39180 39180 39180 39180 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 5e+05 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 44-53
736 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium 30150 30150 30150 30150 30150 30150 30150 30150 30150 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 52977.089 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
12236 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium 22600 22600 22600 22600 22600 22600 22600 22600 22600 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
14398 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 40-49 40-49 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 0-7500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium 28950 28950 28950 28950 28950 28950 28950 28950 28950 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 24-33 24-33 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
6386 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 16-19 16-19 16-19 16-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 1020 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 2440.102 239.7231 6483.2473 2026.9269 220.6801 1897.678 200.273 2659.388 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 -1 -1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0-3 0-3 0-3 0-3 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8
5284 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 High High High High High High High High High 1270 1270 1270 1270 1270 1270 1270 1270 1270 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 0-10000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.720 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 9-13 9-13 9-13 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
999 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married Married 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 60-69 60-69 60-69 60-69 60-69 70-79 70-79 70-79 70-79 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium 62030 62030 62030 62030 62030 62030 62030 62030 62030 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 40000+ 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3620.310 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 44-53 44-53 44-53 44-53 44-53 54-63 54-63 54-63 54-63
1553 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 30-39 30-39 30-39 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 15000+ 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 High High High High High High High High High 39430 39430 39430 39430 39430 39430 39430 39430 39430 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 30000-40000 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 3e+05 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 14-23 14-23 14-23 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33
8480 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 7500-10000 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 High High High High High High High High High 23570 23570 23570 23570 23570 23570 23570 23570 23570 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 20000-30000 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 5e+04 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 236.8179 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 1.080 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 9-13 9-13 9-13 9-13
10430 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single Single 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 10000-15000 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 High High High High High High High High High 11020 11020 11020 11020 11020 11020 11020 11020 11020 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 10000-20000 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 1e+05 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.880 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 -1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43

From the display of tbl.wider[1:20,], we can see that many columns are redundant. Before we remove any of these columns, this provides critical information for us as actuaries. Because we are trying to create a prospective underwriting guideline, we want to understand the data that go into our models.

Deleting Repeated Columns

# k <- 2 # counting index
keep <- c(1,2) # columns to keep
for (i in 3:(length(names(tbl.wider)) ) ) {
  compare <- prod( tbl.wider[i-1] == tbl.wider[i] )
  if ( is.na(compare) ) { compare <- TRUE }
  # print(diff)
  if ( !as.logical(compare)  ) { # if not exact match
    keep <- c(keep, i)
  }
}
tbl.cleaned <- tbl.wider[keep]
# View(tbl.cleaned, title = "Cleaned Data Table")
tbl.cleaned[1:20,] %>% qkable()
Vehicle Number Policy Number PY2010 Marital Status PY2010 Driver Age PY2010 Driver Age PY2011 Driver Age PY2012 Driver Age PY2013 Driver Age PY2014 Driver Age PY2015 Driver Age PY2016 Driver Age PY2017 Driver Age PY2018 Driver Age Band PY2010 Driver Age Band PY2011 Driver Age Band PY2012 Driver Age Band PY2013 Driver Age Band PY2014 Driver Age Band PY2015 Driver Age Band PY2016 Driver Age Band PY2017 Driver Age Band PY2018 Annual Mileage PY2010 Territory PY2010 Credit Score PY2010 Car Value PY2010 Car Value Band PY2010 Liability Limit PY2010 Physical Damage Deductible PY2010 Reported Losses PY2010 Reported Losses PY2011 Reported Losses PY2012 Reported Losses PY2013 Reported Losses PY2014 Reported Losses PY2015 Reported Losses PY2016 Reported Losses PY2017 Reported Losses PY2018 Late Fees PY2010 Late Fees PY2011 Late Fees PY2012 Late Fees PY2013 Late Fees PY2014 Conviction Points PY2010 Conviction Points PY2011 Conviction Points PY2012 Conviction Points PY2013 Conviction Points PY2014 Conviction Points PY2015 Conviction Points PY2016 Base Pure Premium PY2010 Marital Status Relativity PY2010 Driver Age Relativity PY2010 Driver Age Relativity PY2011 Driver Age Relativity PY2012 Driver Age Relativity PY2013 Driver Age Relativity PY2014 Driver Age Relativity PY2015 Driver Age Relativity PY2016 Driver Age Relativity PY2017 Driver Age Relativity PY2018 Annual Mileage Relativity PY2010 Car Value Relativity PY2010 Liability Limit Relativity PY2010 Physical Damage Deductible Relativity PY2010 Multi-Car PY2010 Multi-Car Relativity PY2010 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2010 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2011 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2012 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2013 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2014 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2015 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2016 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2017 Accident Points (AP) last 3 years PY2018 AP Relativity PY2010 AP Relativity PY2011 AP Relativity PY2012 AP Relativity PY2013 AP Relativity PY2014 AP Relativity PY2015 AP Relativity PY2016 AP Relativity PY2017 AP Relativity PY2018 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2013 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2014 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2015 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2016 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2017 Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years PY2018 CP Relativity PY2010 CP Relativity PY2012 CP Relativity PY2013 CP Relativity PY2014 CP Relativity PY2015 CP Relativity PY2016 CP Relativity PY2017 CP Relativity PY2018 Driver Experience PY2010 Driver Experience PY2011 Driver Experience PY2012 Driver Experience PY2013 Driver Experience PY2014 Driver Experience PY2015 Driver Experience PY2016 Driver Experience PY2017 Driver Experience PY2018 Driver Experience Band PY2010 Driver Experience Band PY2011 Driver Experience Band PY2012 Driver Experience Band PY2013 Driver Experience Band PY2014 Driver Experience Band PY2015 Driver Experience Band PY2016 Driver Experience Band PY2017 Driver Experience Band PY2018
6125 1 Single 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 16-19 16-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 0-7500 4 High 3220 0-10000 5e+04 100 0 0.000 0.0000 200.0692 0.0000 0.0000 12602.418 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.720 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0-3 0-3 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 9-13 9-13
10332 1 Married 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 7500-10000 3 High 20090 20000-30000 5e+05 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1500 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.000 1.12 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
1965 2 Married 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 60-69 60-69 60-69 15000+ 1 Medium 13810 10000-20000 1e+05 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.880 0.88 1.000 2 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 44-53 44-53 44-53
14130 2 Married 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 37060 30000-40000 1e+05 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.045 0.88 1.080 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
2976 3 Single 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 7500-10000 4 High 20860 20000-30000 5e+04 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.000 0.60 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
76 4 Married 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 60-69 60-69 15000+ 2 High 80850 40000+ 5e+04 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.080 0.60 1.080 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 44-53 44-53
8571 5 Single 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 0-7500 3 Low 5610 0-10000 1e+05 500 0 0.000 0.0000 10121.7588 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1500 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.720 0.88 1.000 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 9-13 9-13 9-13 9-13 9-13
8530 6 Single 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 25-29 25-29 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 7500-10000 2 High 20000 20000-30000 5e+04 250 0 0.000 0.0000 28602.5937 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 70200.000 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1500 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.000 0.60 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1 1 2 1 1 0 -1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 9-13 9-13 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
6104 7 Single 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 40-49 40-49 0-7500 1 High 13020 10000-20000 5e+04 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.880 0.60 1.000 2 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 24-33 24-33
12468 7 Single 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 0-7500 2 High 26350 20000-30000 1e+05 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1500 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.000 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2 2 2 1 0 0 -1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 9-13 9-13 9-13 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
1547 8 Married 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 60-69 0-7500 4 Low 39180 30000-40000 5e+05 1000 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.045 1.12 0.935 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 44-53
736 9 Married 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 10000-15000 4 Medium 30150 30000-40000 1e+05 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 52977.089 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.045 0.88 1.000 3 0.8 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
12236 9 Single 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 0-7500 4 Medium 22600 20000-30000 5e+04 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.000 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
14398 9 Single 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 40-49 40-49 40-49 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 0-7500 3 Medium 28950 20000-30000 5e+04 1000 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.000 0.60 0.935 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 24-33 24-33 24-33 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43
6386 10 Single 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 16-19 16-19 16-19 16-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 7500-10000 2 Low 1020 0-10000 5e+04 100 0 2440.102 239.7231 6483.2473 2026.9269 220.6801 1897.678 200.273 2659.388 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.720 0.60 1.080 1 1.0 -1 -1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 -1 -1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0-3 0-3 0-3 0-3 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8
5284 11 Married 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 30-39 7500-10000 3 High 1270 0-10000 1e+05 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1500 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.720 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 9-13 9-13 9-13 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23 14-23
999 12 Married 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 60-69 60-69 60-69 60-69 60-69 70-79 70-79 70-79 70-79 10000-15000 3 Medium 62030 40000+ 1e+05 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3620.310 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.080 0.88 1.000 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 44-53 44-53 44-53 44-53 44-53 54-63 54-63 54-63 54-63
1553 13 Single 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 30-39 30-39 30-39 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 40-49 15000+ 2 High 39430 30000-40000 3e+05 500 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.045 1.00 1.000 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 14-23 14-23 14-23 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33 24-33
8480 14 Single 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 25-29 7500-10000 3 High 23570 20000-30000 5e+04 100 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 236.8179 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.000 0.60 1.080 2 0.9 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 4-8 9-13 9-13 9-13 9-13
10430 14 Single 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 50-59 10000-15000 2 High 11020 10000-20000 1e+05 250 0 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1500 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.880 0.88 1.045 1 1.0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43 34-43

We see here in tbl.cleaned all the unique columns, with all repetitions removed. To emphasize this fact, we keep the ...PY2010 suffix in the column names.

The factors that are constant are listed below, along with the years for which they are repeated:

Constant 2010-2018

  1. Marital Status
  2. Annual Mileage
  3. Territory
  4. Credit Score
  5. Car Value (and Car Value Band)
  6. Liability Limit
  7. Physical Damage Deductible
  8. Multi-Car

Constant 2014-2018

  1. Late Fees

Constant 2016-2018

  1. Conviction Points

From this list, we have reason to believe that either the computer system is broken or there was a serious error in the data reporting.

Because our filed relativity is based on metrics rolling over 3 years, for our project we are interested in modeling based on experience from policy years 2013 through 2016. We want to use Conviction Points to drive our GLM, and this variable for years 2017 and 2018 is not credible.


2. Understanding the Premium Structure

We are told that Cal Insurance suffered large losses over the past 6 years, and that the Chief Actuary believes this may be due to adverse selection. Notably, our dataset only contains a cohort of policyholders who are retained through the years 2010 through 2018. That is, we have no information on newly acquired insureds or loss of customers. This makes it difficult to determine the presence of adverse selection.

However, to get a better intuition on this, we would like to visualize the premium data over the past 6 years. To start, here is a boxplot to demonstrate the distribution of the overall premium structure, as well as separated by different rating factors.

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, Territory)  %>%  ggplot(aes(group =`Policy Year`, y=Premium)) + geom_boxplot(aes(group=`Policy Year`), outlier.color = "lightblue", outlier.shape = 13) + ggtitle("Premium Per Vehicle: Separated by Policy Year") + theme(axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank())  # dont know how to change the x axis back to the years

# separated by territory
select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, Territory)  %>%  ggplot(aes(group =`Policy Year`, y=Premium)) + geom_boxplot(aes(group=`Policy Year`), outlier.color = "lightblue", outlier.shape = 13) + facet_grid(. ~ Territory) + ggtitle("Premium Per Vehicle: Separated by Territory") + theme(axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank())

# separated by mileage 
select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Annual Mileage`)  %>%  ggplot(aes(group =`Policy Year`, y=Premium)) + geom_boxplot(aes(group=`Annual Mileage`), outlier.color = "lightblue", outlier.shape = 13) + facet_grid(. ~ `Annual Mileage`) + ggtitle("Premium Per Vehicle: Separated by Annual Mileage") + theme(axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank())

In the following plots of average premiums and policyholder counts from 2013 through 2018, we see that average premiums are decreasing yearly in both single and married populations. From our data validation, we found that none of the customers in the database change between married and single in our experience period.

# marital status 
select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Marital Status`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Policy Year`), stat = "count") + facet_wrap(~`Marital Status`) + ggtitle("Policyholder Count (Frequency) by Marital Status") + theme(legend.position = "bottom")

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Marital Status`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Policy Year`), stat = "summary", fun.y="mean") + facet_wrap(~`Marital Status`) + ggtitle("Average Premium Charged by Marital Status") + theme(legend.position= "bottom")

There is approximately a 50/50 split between single and married policyholders. We’ve established that no individual changes Marital Status through the experience period, as is also shown above. However, it is remarkable that the average premium is monotonically decreasing as years progress. Under the same rating system, with no changes to policies, we see that on average, policyholders are being charged cheaper rates. This is especially evident among single policyholders.

The Age Structure

Here are a few exhibits to understand the distribution about the driver age band. The plots below again show that the overall premium is decreasing each year, at least from the subset of policyholders in our data.

# driver age band

prems[, c("Premium", "Policy Year", "Driver Experience Band")] %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Experience Band`), stat = "identity", position="stack") + ggtitle("Total Premium by Driver Experience Band") + theme(legend.position = "bottom")

prems[, c("Premium", "Policy Year", "Driver Experience Band")] %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Experience Band`), stat = "identity", position="dodge") + ggtitle("Total Premium by Driver Experience Band") + theme(legend.position = "bottom")

prems[, c("Premium", "Policy Year", "Driver Experience Band")] %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Policy Year`), stat = "identity", show.legend = TRUE)  + facet_grid(. ~ `Driver Experience Band`)  + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Total Premium by Driver Experience Band") + xlab("Policy Year")

There is very surprising total premium dropoff in driver experience years 4-8 (this is the band of ages 20-24). The plot for the 0-3 band makes sense because we follow a single cohort starting 2010, and only plot starts at 2013 (so there will only be one bar for 2013, and for future years, these individuals are in the next band). The above charts help us understand the proportions of total premiums, but we’ll also want to normalize across the population. We’ll break this down into the average premiums and policyholder count for each group.

To gain more insight on the premium structure and how it may correspond with the age structure and progression over time, we’ll break down into frequency (policyholder counts) and severity (premiums charged).

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Driver Age Band`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Age Band`), stat = "count", position="stack") + ggtitle("Frequency: Distribution of Policyholder Age")

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Driver Age Band`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Age Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", position="stack") + ggtitle("Average Premium Charged by Driver Age Band")

These show the age-structure progressing each year; however, the plots are not illuminating. Instead of a stacked bar graph, let’s try position = "dodge".

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Driver Age Band`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Age Band`), stat = "count", position="dodge") + ggtitle("Distribution of Policyholder Driver Age")

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Driver Age Band`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Age Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", position="dodge") + ggtitle("Average Premium Charged by Driver Age Band")

The above frequency plot directly shows the age structure shifting each year, and the average premium charged seems relatively stable (with the exception of the highest few age bands 80-89 and 90+).

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Driver Age Band`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Age Band`), stat = "count", show.legend = TRUE)  + facet_grid(. ~ `Driver Age Band`)  + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Distribution of Driver Age Across Policy Years 2013-2018") + xlab("Policy Year (2013-2018)") + ylab("Average Premium Charged")

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Driver Age Band`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Age Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE)  + facet_grid(. ~ `Driver Age Band`)  + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Premium Charged to Each Driver Age Band \nAcross Policy Years 2013-2018") + xlab("Policy Year (2013-2018)") + ylab("Average Premium Charged")

These plots show the direct comparisons within each age band. In terms of pricing and rating, these two plots may be the most informative (or at least the most intuitive to utilize).


The Independence Assumption: Reasons for Tweedie Modelling

Traditional models take the assumption that individual risks are independent. In our present case, we have multi-car policies that introduce a dependence, where marital status or multi-car policy may mitigate the collective risk among the policy’s assets. Further, we do not have information regarding the claims process, and we do not know if a policy year consolidates multiple claims in that given year.

Hence we will model the Pure Premium in our Generalized Linear Model. Before this, we may be interested in the historical premiums charged to the different levels of Multi-Car policies:

# policyholder distribution
select(prems, Premium, `Driver Experience Band`, `Multi-Car`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Experience Band`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Experience Band`), stat = "count", show.legend = TRUE) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank())  + facet_grid(. ~ `Multi-Car`) + ggtitle("Distribution of Driver Experience\n (Separated by Multi-Car Policy)") + scale_y_continuous(trans='log10')

# average premium
# select(prems, Premium, `Driver Experience Band`, `Multi-Car`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Experience Band`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Driver Experience Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + theme(legend.position= "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank())  + facet_grid(. ~ `Multi-Car`) + ggtitle("Average Premium per Vehicle \n(Separated by Multi-Car Policy)")  

# distribution of policies across the annual mileage bands
  # select(prems, Premium, `Annual Mileage`, `Multi-Car`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Multi-Car`), stat = "count", show.legend = FALSE) + theme(axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank())  + facet_grid(. ~ `Multi-Car`) + ggtitle("Vehicle Count by Multi-Car Policy") + scale_y_continuous(trans='log10') # not very informative


# better plot of average premium
select(prems, Premium, `Annual Mileage`, `Multi-Car`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Annual Mileage`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + theme(axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank(), legend.position = "bottom")  + facet_grid(. ~ `Multi-Car`) + ggtitle("Average Premium Charged by Annual Mileage (Separated by Multi-Car Policy)")  # 4th has an odd trend

From these charts, it is clear that charged premiums are generally discounted for multi-car policies (in average after including other factors). There is an exception in the monotonicity of premium charged in Annual Mileage = 7500-10000, 10000-15000 and Multi-Car = 4.


Investigating Credit Score vs Charged Premiums

In California Private Passenger Automobile insurance, we do not use credit score for rating and underwriting considerations. However, this factor may still be of interest to us.

In particular, recall that we did not use Credit Score as a factor in our multiplicative rating algorithm. However, there is a clear monotonic trend where those with higher credit score pay lower premiums than do those with lower credit score.

This is very intriguing and calls for special investigation; however for this task we will not pursue this further, as we cannot use Credit Score as a part of our underwriting guidelines. If one were to seek after this, it would be wise to seek proxies for Credit Score via a combination of other variables.

prems$`Credit Score`<- factor(prems$`Credit Score`, levels = c("Low", "Medium","High")) # set plotting order


select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Credit Score`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Credit Score`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", position="stack") + ggtitle("Average Premium by Credit Score")

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Credit Score`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Credit Score`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", position="dodge") + ggtitle("Average Premium by Credit Score")

select(prems, Premium, `Policy Year`, `Credit Score`) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill=`Policy Year`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE)  + facet_grid(. ~ `Credit Score`) + ggtitle("Average Premium by Credit Score") + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank())

It appears that historical premiums are well correlated with credit score (by comparing the graphs of different colors). Additionally, by aggregating by policy year, the average premium in each group has dropped.


3. Understanding the Reported Loss

Here we’ll have a better look into our data and form assumptions to help with modeling. While we are certainly interested in how we have historically charged policyholders and their resulting losses, our ratemaking algorithm and underwriting guidelines must be prospective. This is because customers are free to shop around for coverage, and an insurer’s intent to recoup past losses from particular individuals may be useless. The individual can simply switch to a competitor insurer that offers cheaper rates.

Let’s take a look at the distribution of claim severity. For an exhibit, we’ll look at our data for Policy Year 2013.

qloss <- select(tbl.cleaned, `Vehicle Number`, `Reported Losses PY2013`) 
pos.loss <- qloss$`Reported Losses PY2013` > 0

This first plot below shows the overall distribution of claim severity, where (as we expect) the bulk (91%) of policyholders file no claims. In fact, 95% of insureds have a reported loss of less than $1,000 in 2013. We call this distribution “zero-inflated,” as there is a very large amount of “zero-severity” claims (no claims filed).

qloss[pos.loss,] %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Reported Losses PY2013`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 15, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + ggtitle("Distribution of Claims by Severity")

To have a better look at the tail, we scale the \(x\)-axis by log10(). This eliminates zero-severity claims from our plot (as \(\log_{10} 0 = - \infty\)), and groups higher severity claims together.

qloss[pos.loss,] %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Reported Losses PY2013`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 15, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + scale_x_log10() + ggtitle("Distribution of Claims by Log Severity")

This appears like a typical loss distribution, where we can fit this histogram to a Gamma or Tweedie distribution.

We may want to cap the losses for our model if we expect that the few high severity claims will adversely affect our model.

For our predictive model, we must choose whether to model true reported losses or the incurred losses after adjusting to deductible and liability limits. Although it may appear beneficial to capture the underlying data via the raw, unadjusted reported losses, we must note that there is a substantial likelihood that policyholders with a high deductible do not report a small-cost claim, whether to avoid the hassle or to not adversely affect their record when there is no benefit or payout.

Now this leaves us to expect that there are some low-amount losses that are incurred but will not be reported. Because this is a natural (and often desired as it helps lower adjusting costs) mechanism of the deductible, we choose to model to adjusted loss data. This will naturally put a cap on the high reported losses, capped at the maximum liability limit for the policy.

Adjusting the Losses to Liability Limit Caps and Deductible Minimums

In our data cleaning, we notice that some filed premiums are high (above $4000), but many of these also incur high losses in our experience period. To evaluate claims by their impact on Cal Insurance’s finances, we want to normalize the losses by first applying the liability limits and deductibles.

n <- length(tbl$`Reported Losses`)

tmp <- matrix(data = NA, nrow = n )

# adjust the losses to deductible and liability limit
for (i in 1:n) {
 tmp[i] <-  max( min(tbl$`Liability Limit`[i], tbl$`Reported Losses`[i]) - tbl$`Physical Damage Deductible`[i], 0 ) 
  # take minimum of limit and the loss, and 
  # then take maximum of 0 and the difference to the deductible
}

# View(adj.loss)

loss <- tbl %>% mutate(`Adjusted Loss` = tmp) # append adjusted loss

loss  %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 15, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + ggtitle("Log-Distribution of Nonzero Claims by Severity") + scale_y_log10()

loss  %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 15, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + scale_x_log10()  + ggtitle("Distribution of Nonzero Claims by Log-Severity")

To gain some insight on the data after applying the deductible and liability limits, we’ll look at some distribution plots.

loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Credit Score`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Credit Score`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Adjusted Loss by Credit Score and Marital Status") + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) 

From this above plot, we see that Credit Score and Marital Status are indeed very strong indicators of expected loss. This validates the significantly lower premiums charged to married policyholders with high credit scores.

Let’s take a look at the average adjusted loss for Annual Mileage and Driver Experience Band, two variables that are heavily influenced by sequential analysis in compliance with California’s Proposition 103.

loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Annual Mileage`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Adjusted Loss", subtitle = "by Annual Mileage and Marital Status") + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) 

loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Experience Band`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Driver Experience Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Adjusted Loss by Driver Experience Band and Territory") + facet_grid(. ~ `Territory`) 

# loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "identity", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom")  + ggtitle("Total loss by Territory and Marital Status") 

loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank())  + ggtitle("Average Loss by Territory and Marital Status")

The total and average losses by aggregating by Marital Status and Territory appears to be very similar. We can check the counts and see that they are very closely uniform across the territories:

loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "count", show.legend = FALSE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom")  + ggtitle("Distribution of Policyholders by Territory and Marital Status")

loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Policy Year`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Policy Year`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank())  + ggtitle("Average loss by Policy Year, Comparing Marital Status")

Without specific data on the loss-related expenses, we take the simplifying assumption that loss related expenses are 20% of the adjusted loss. That is, we assume \[ \begin{align*} \text{Pure Premium} &= \text{Losses} + \text{Loss Related Expenses} \\ &= 1.20 \times \text{Losses}. \end{align*}\] We verify that this assumption is asymptotically sound in that low-severity claims under the deductible have no loss related expenses, while large severity claims may involve attorney fees that scale with the size of the claim. Because we are training on the years 2013-2015, we assume that there has been sufficient time (3~6 years) for losses to develop to ultimate.

# loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Experience Band`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_histogram(aes(fill = `Driver Experience Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank())  + ggtitle("Average loss by Policy Year and Marital Status")


loss <- loss %>% mutate(`Pure Premium` = 1.20 * `Adjusted Loss`)
  
df.loss <- filter(loss, `Policy Year` >= 2013, `Policy Year` <= 2015 ) %>% select(`Policy Number`, `Vehicle Number`,  `Pure Premium`, `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`, `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`, `Annual Mileage`, `Driver Experience Band`, `Marital Status`,   `Territory`, `Driver Age`, `Credit Score`, `Late Fees`, `Liability Limit` ) # bring credit score for cross-validation of proxy later


df.loss[1:100,] %>% qkable()
Policy Number Vehicle Number Pure Premium Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years Accident Points (AP) last 3 years Annual Mileage Driver Experience Band Marital Status Territory Driver Age Credit Score Late Fees Liability Limit
1 6125 120.0830 1 1 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 21 High 0 5e+04
1 10332 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 24-33 Married 3 48 High 0 5e+05
2 1965 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 34-43 Married 1 57 Medium 0 1e+05
2 14130 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 34-43 Married 1 52 High 0 1e+05
3 2976 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 14-23 Single 4 34 High 0 5e+04
4 76 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 34-43 Married 2 56 High 0 5e+04
5 8571 11546.1106 1 1 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 24 Low 0 1e+05
6 8530 34023.1125 1 1 7500-10000 14-23 Single 2 31 High 1 5e+04
7 6104 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 14-23 Single 1 36 High 0 5e+04
7 12468 0.0000 2 0 0-7500 14-23 Single 2 30 High 0 1e+05
8 1547 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 34-43 Married 4 55 Low 0 5e+05
9 736 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 34-43 Married 4 52 Medium 0 1e+05
9 12236 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 34-43 Single 4 53 Medium 0 5e+04
9 14398 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 34-43 Single 3 50 Medium 0 5e+04
10 6386 7659.8968 0 3 7500-10000 0-3 Single 2 19 Low 0 5e+04
11 5284 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 14-23 Married 3 30 High 0 1e+05
12 999 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 44-53 Married 3 68 Medium 0 1e+05
13 1553 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 24-33 Single 2 40 High 0 3e+05
14 8480 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 23 High 0 5e+04
14 10430 0.0000 1 0 10000-15000 34-43 Single 2 54 High 0 1e+05
15 5609 0.0000 2 0 7500-10000 34-43 Married 4 52 Low 0 5e+05
16 5679 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 14-23 Single 1 31 High 0 3e+05
16 14610 122.8126 0 1 7500-10000 34-43 Married 1 51 High 0 5e+05
17 3462 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 34-43 Single 1 54 High 3 3e+05
17 12553 63413.4231 0 1 10000-15000 14-23 Single 2 37 Low 0 1e+05
18 5397 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 34-43 Married 1 54 High 2 3e+05
19 2344 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 24-33 Single 3 41 High 0 3e+05
20 8792 0.0000 1 0 0-7500 14-23 Single 4 36 Medium 0 5e+05
21 4380 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 9-13 Single 1 27 Medium 0 3e+05
21 12703 120.0024 0 1 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 24 Low 0 5e+04
22 9614 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 24-33 Single 3 41 High 0 3e+05
23 7817 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 14-23 Single 3 34 Low 0 5e+05
24 4802 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 24-33 Single 1 41 Low 0 1e+05
24 11025 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 44-53 Married 4 67 High 0 3e+05
25 2795 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 9-13 Single 4 27 Low 1 1e+05
25 11584 0.0000 1 0 0-7500 4-8 Single 1 22 Low 0 1e+05
26 2611 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 14-23 Single 3 31 Low 0 5e+04
27 6005 0.0000 1 0 0-7500 14-23 Single 4 31 Low 0 5e+04
28 3107 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 9-13 Single 4 27 High 0 1e+05
28 10304 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 14-23 Married 3 39 High 0 5e+04
28 11879 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 44-53 Married 1 67 High 0 5e+04
29 9910 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 34-43 Single 4 54 Low 0 5e+04
30 5177 0.0000 0 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 2 29 Low 0 5e+04
30 14568 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 34-43 Married 4 59 High 0 1e+05
31 9230 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 22 High 0 3e+05
32 1665 0.0000 1 0 15000+ 9-13 Single 3 29 Medium 0 1e+05
33 4652 0.0000 1 0 15000+ 34-43 Single 2 51 High 0 5e+04
34 3222 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 24-33 Married 4 41 High 0 5e+04
34 10923 0.0000 2 0 0-7500 34-43 Single 3 52 Medium 0 1e+05
34 12380 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 9-13 Single 2 25 Medium 0 1e+05
34 13859 0.0000 1 0 10000-15000 44-53 Married 2 68 High 0 1e+05
35 9666 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 24-33 Married 4 47 High 0 1e+05
36 6180 0.0000 1 0 0-7500 64-73 Married 4 85 High 0 5e+05
37 6273 0.0000 2 0 0-7500 44-53 Married 1 69 Medium 0 1e+05
37 11273 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 44-53 Married 2 65 Medium 0 5e+05
38 7200 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 22 High 0 5e+04
39 1753 0.0000 1 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 1 26 Low 0 1e+05
40 4931 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 34-43 Single 2 56 Medium 0 1e+05
41 2560 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 9-13 Single 2 25 High 0 3e+05
42 644 1331.1593 3 1 7500-10000 44-53 Married 1 63 Low 0 5e+04
43 2991 0.0000 1 1 7500-10000 14-23 Single 4 30 High 0 1e+05
44 9914 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 9-13 Single 3 27 High 0 5e+04
44 12279 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 24-33 Married 2 47 Medium 0 1e+05
45 7013 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 24-33 Married 1 43 Medium 0 3e+05
45 10173 458.2196 0 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 1 28 High 0 5e+04
45 10767 0.0000 1 0 0-7500 44-53 Married 2 65 High 0 5e+04
46 4662 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 24-33 Married 2 43 High 0 5e+04
46 11794 0.0000 0 1 0-7500 34-43 Married 2 56 Low 0 5e+05
46 12190 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 44-53 Married 2 67 High 1 3e+05
47 9509 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 54-63 Married 4 71 High 0 5e+04
47 10134 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 24-33 Married 4 40 Medium 1 3e+05
48 9985 0.0000 1 0 15000+ 24-33 Married 2 43 Medium 0 3e+05
48 11131 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 24-33 Married 4 41 Medium 0 1e+05
48 11320 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 34-43 Married 3 59 High 0 3e+05
48 14055 0.0000 1 0 10000-15000 24-33 Married 1 47 High 0 1e+05
49 7219 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 14-23 Married 1 36 High 0 5e+05
50 6263 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 24-33 Married 1 42 High 0 1e+05
50 13926 1869.7136 0 1 0-7500 14-23 Single 2 38 High 0 3e+05
51 7260 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 44-53 Married 2 67 Medium 0 3e+05
52 6243 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 14-23 Single 2 31 Medium 0 5e+05
53 7866 0.0000 1 0 0-7500 14-23 Single 1 33 High 0 5e+04
53 11892 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 24-33 Single 2 40 Low 0 5e+05
54 7 0.0000 0 1 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 24 High 0 3e+05
55 3650 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 4-8 Single 2 21 Low 0 1e+05
56 6369 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 44-53 Married 1 69 High 0 5e+05
57 9857 0.0000 1 0 10000-15000 44-53 Married 3 67 Medium 0 5e+05
58 395 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 34-43 Married 2 56 Low 0 5e+05
59 5637 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 14-23 Married 3 39 Medium 0 3e+05
59 12228 0.0000 1 0 15000+ 4-8 Single 4 21 Low 0 3e+05
59 14572 0.0000 0 1 7500-10000 34-43 Married 3 51 Medium 0 3e+05
60 5079 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 44-53 Married 3 62 High 0 3e+05
61 6131 0.0000 0 1 15000+ 24-33 Married 4 44 High 0 5e+04
62 8742 0.0000 0 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 3 27 High 0 5e+04
62 12257 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 34-43 Single 1 52 High 1 5e+05
62 14614 0.0000 0 0 10000-15000 44-53 Married 2 67 Low 0 5e+04
63 9104 0.0000 1 0 7500-10000 24-33 Married 2 40 High 0 5e+04
63 14213 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 24-33 Single 3 42 Low 1 3e+05
64 7515 0.0000 0 0 7500-10000 24-33 Married 2 42 High 0 1e+05
64 10697 0.0000 0 0 0-7500 9-13 Single 3 25 Medium 0 5e+05
65 4023 0.0000 0 0 15000+ 14-23 Single 1 38 Medium 0 3e+05

As we generally expect, the average loss (severity) is highest for inexperienced and over-experienced drivers (where old age effects come into account). Interestingly, the old age single drivers and young married drivers tend to not have high losses.

df.loss %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`, y = `Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years` ), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE)  + facet_grid(. ~ `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`, labeller = label_parsed) + theme(legend.position = "bottom") + ggtitle("Average Pure Premium by 3-Year AP and CP")

filter(df.loss, `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years` == 1, `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years` == 3) %>% qkable(height = "240px")
Policy Number Vehicle Number Pure Premium Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years Accident Points (AP) last 3 years Annual Mileage Driver Experience Band Marital Status Territory Driver Age Credit Score Late Fees Liability Limit
42 644 1331.159 3 1 7500-10000 44-53 Married 1 63 Low 0 5e+04
795 11667 0.000 3 1 15000+ 34-43 Married 1 57 Medium 0 5e+05
968 11412 46363.502 3 1 10000-15000 34-43 Married 2 52 Medium 0 5e+05
1462 6432 11873.345 3 1 10000-15000 34-43 Single 2 54 High 0 1e+05
2138 14961 66620.400 3 1 10000-15000 4-8 Single 2 23 Medium 0 3e+05
6411 4113 78368.346 3 1 7500-10000 24-33 Single 3 41 Medium 0 3e+05
6411 4113 0.000 3 1 7500-10000 24-33 Single 3 42 Medium 0 3e+05
6471 5023 6269.003 3 1 7500-10000 34-43 Married 2 58 High 0 1e+05

Very oddly, in the 2015 data above, we see an anomaly. The combination of 3 conviction points in the last 3 years and precisely 1 accident in the last 3 years appears to have a high average loss severity (and pure premium). Although this is only a sample of 6, this may be an indication to reject this category of drivers with these specifications.


4. Building the Predictive Model

“Unfortunately, Cal Insurance’s pricing model was already filed with the Department of Insurance and cannot be changed for another two years.”

Although this is unfortunate, this affords us with two years to research and develop models to inform a better set of underwriting guidelines.

We will use a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with target variable Pure Premium (dollars of loss per exposure) for pricing, where exposure is per vehicle insured.

For a response variable \(y\), our generalized linear model is given by

\[\begin{align*} f(y) = c(y, \phi) e^{\left( \frac{y \theta - a (\theta) }{\phi} \right)} , \quad g(\mu) = x' \beta, \end{align*}\] where the second equation is the generalization of the linear model. We take our link \(g(\mu)\) to be \(\log\) to align with our desired multiplicative rating system. Then by considering the average count \(\mu/n\), we have \[ \begin{align*} \log\left( \frac{\mu}{n} \right) = x' \beta \implies \log \mu = \log n + x' \beta \implies \mu = n e^{x' \beta}. \end{align*}\] where \(\log n\) is our offset.

Now the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) of \(\beta\) and \(\phi\) are solved numerically (computationally as opposed to analytically) via iterative methods and a non-positive definite Hessian matrix to indicate the maximum.

As mentioned earlier in this document,

“Traditional models take the assumption that individual risks are independent. In our present case, we have multi-car policies that introduce a dependence, where marital status or multi-car policy may mitigate the collective risk among the policy’s assets. Further, we do not have information regarding the claims process, and we do not know if a policy year consolidates multiple claims in that given year.”

To not assume that frequency and severity are independent, we use a Tweedie distribution. Recall that a Poisson\((\lambda)\) and Gamma(\(\alpha, \theta\)) distribution has expected values \(\lambda\) and \(\alpha \dot \theta\) respectively. Correspondingly, Tweedie distribution has expected value \[ \mu = \lambda \cdot \alpha \cdot \theta, \] where \(\lambda\) is the expected frequency (modeled via Poisson) and \(\alpha \theta\) is the expected severity (modeled via Gamma). Hence we think of the Tweedie distribution as a Poisson sum (number of) Gamma-severity claims. The power \(p\) is given by \[ p = \frac{\alpha + 2}{\alpha + 1}, \] and the Tweedie dispersion parameter \(\phi\) is given by \[ \phi = \frac{\lambda^{1 - p} (\alpha \theta )^{2 - p}}{2 - p}. \] We have special cases of the normal distribution \((p = 0)\), the Poisson distribution \((p = 1, \phi = 1)\), the Gamma distribution \((p=2)\), and the inverse Gaussian \((p = 3)\).

# X <- select(loss, `Driver Age`, `Marital Status`)

pp <- df.loss$`Pure Premium` # response variable; 

x.conviction <- df.loss$`Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`
x.mileage <- df.loss$`Annual Mileage`
x.experience <- df.loss$`Driver Experience Band`
x.accident <- df.loss$`Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`
x.marital <- df.loss$`Marital Status`
x.territory <- df.loss$Territory

Selecting \(p\)-value for Tweedie via Gamma Fitting

# determine p from gamma glm, given by Glenn Meyers 
# https://dsury.com/tweedie-distribution-on-the-generalized-linear-model/
posi <- pp > 0
glm.sev <- glm(pp[posi] ~ x.conviction[posi] + x.mileage[posi] + x.experience[posi] + x.accident[posi] + x.marital[posi] + x.territory[posi], 
               family = Gamma(link="log"))
tmp <- summary(glm.sev)
phi.sev <- tmp$dispersion
alpha1 <- 1 / phi.sev 
p.hat <- (2 + alpha1) / (1 + alpha1) 
print(paste0("The p-value given by Gamma fitting is:  ",p.hat))
## [1] "The p-value given by Gamma fitting is:  1.7894905804437"

Compute negative log-likelihood

Using the Gamma-fitted GLM parameters, we initialize a log-linked tweedie GLM fit with the same \(\hat p\) parameter.

x.vec <- c(x.conviction, x.mileage, x.experience, x.accident, x.marital, x.territory) 

# initial fit using p.hat = 1.7916
glm.init <- glm(pp ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, family = tweedie(var.power = p.hat, link.power = 0)) # 0 for log-link

We would like to fine-tune the \(p\) parameter and we do this using the tglm function, with output suppressed as it normally prints pages of iterations.

# use as start into tglm
glm.fisher <- tglm(pp ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, data = df.loss, inits = glm.init$coefficients)

Here we’ll use the value of \(p\) from our last result to drive our glm. We use the coefficients from glm.init$coefficients to start the iterative optimization process. The details for the Tweedie GLM fit are given by summary(glm.tweedie) below.

# glm with tweedie family, using p from last result
# p <- glm.fisher$coef[["p"]]
glm.tweedie <- glm(formula = pp ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, family = tweedie(var.power = p.hat, link.power = 0), start = glm.init$coefficients, data = df.loss)

summary(glm.tweedie)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = pp ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + 
##     x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, family = tweedie(var.power = p.hat, 
##     link.power = 0), data = df.loss, start = glm.init$coefficients)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max  
## -8.915  -0.069  -0.069  -0.069  32.651  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     -2.29287    0.24540  -9.343  < 2e-16 ***
## x.conviction.L   0.71134    0.28402   2.504  0.01227 *  
## x.conviction.Q   0.40416    0.21764   1.857  0.06332 .  
## x.conviction.C   0.09275    0.11873   0.781  0.43472    
## x.mileage.L      0.06565    0.03266   2.010  0.04443 *  
## x.mileage.Q      0.02614    0.03190   0.819  0.41254    
## x.mileage.C     -0.05908    0.03127  -1.889  0.05884 .  
## x.experience.L  -0.15900    0.27703  -0.574  0.56601    
## x.experience.Q  -0.06377    0.26988  -0.236  0.81320    
## x.experience.C  -0.74950    0.24005  -3.122  0.00180 ** 
## x.experience^4  -0.25593    0.19409  -1.319  0.18730    
## x.experience^5  -0.47085    0.14853  -3.170  0.00153 ** 
## x.experience^6  -0.74376    0.11560  -6.434 1.25e-10 ***
## x.experience^7  -0.46117    0.09189  -5.019 5.22e-07 ***
## x.experience^8  -0.20726    0.06825  -3.037  0.00239 ** 
## x.experience^9  -0.15517    0.05114  -3.034  0.00241 ** 
## x.accident.L    32.05088    0.56879  56.349  < 2e-16 ***
## x.accident.Q   -23.59221    0.42401 -55.640  < 2e-16 ***
## x.accident.C    10.39852    0.19138  54.333  < 2e-16 ***
## x.marital.L     -0.18222    0.04278  -4.260 2.05e-05 ***
## x.territory2    -0.04984    0.04165  -1.197  0.23148    
## x.territory3    -0.04758    0.04402  -1.081  0.27973    
## x.territory4    -0.14142    0.04563  -3.099  0.00194 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for Tweedie family taken to be 13.35685)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2293547  on 44999  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  386865  on 44977  degrees of freedom
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 11
print(paste("The AIC with this Tweedie fit is: ", AICtweedie(glm.tweedie))) # aic in glm is unsupported for tweedie, so use this value 
## [1] "The AIC with this Tweedie fit is:  113072.018195223"
# confint(glm.tweedie) # run if confidence interval is desired; this is cpu and time-intensive

print(paste("The Log-Likelihood is: ",logLiktweedie(glm.tweedie)))
## [1] "The Log-Likelihood is:  -56512.0090976116"

We’d like to compare the observed and predicted pure premiums.

pp.hat <- predict(glm.tweedie, type="response")

# compare pure premiums
compare.pp <- df.loss %>% mutate(`Predicted Pure Premium` =  floor(pp.hat) ) 
compare.pp <- compare.pp %>% select(1:3, 14, 4:13)

We can take a look at two sides of the model: (1) the individuals who have higher Pure Premiums than predicted (we want to consider these for rejection via UW guidelines) and (2) those who incur less loss (at least in experience) than predicted. We show these below.

compare.pp %>% filter(`Pure Premium` > `Predicted Pure Premium`) %>% slice(1:40) %>% qkable() # type 1: higher observed than predicted
Policy Number Vehicle Number Pure Premium Predicted Pure Premium Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years Accident Points (AP) last 3 years Annual Mileage Driver Experience Band Marital Status Territory Driver Age Credit Score Late Fees Liability Limit
5 8571 11546.111 8911 1 1 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 24 Low 0 1e+05
6 8530 34023.112 6311 1 1 7500-10000 14-23 Single 2 31 High 1 5e+04
17 12553 63413.423 7057 0 1 10000-15000 14-23 Single 2 37 Low 0 1e+05
71 6110 45661.666 10682 0 2 15000+ 9-13 Single 2 27 Low 0 5e+05
73 10790 24235.851 6845 1 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 3 26 Low 0 3e+05
100 4979 30921.584 10707 0 2 15000+ 9-13 Single 3 27 Low 0 5e+04
126 10770 36485.179 6519 0 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 2 28 Medium 0 5e+05
138 9746 119880.000 9924 0 1 15000+ 24-33 Single 2 40 High 0 1e+05
144 10613 167697.445 15197 1 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 24 Low 0 3e+05
155 6927 61615.862 8655 0 1 15000+ 4-8 Single 4 22 Medium 0 5e+05
222 7400 13467.457 9351 0 1 0-7500 24-33 Single 3 40 Low 0 1e+05
222 12590 59700.000 14333 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 1 20 Low 1 5e+04
253 3009 195796.493 9485 0 1 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 23 Low 0 3e+05
342 11869 102554.379 7669 0 1 15000+ 24-33 Married 2 48 High 1 5e+05
359 12495 29606.490 13667 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 5e+05
366 11846 150178.152 9374 0 1 0-7500 4-8 Single 1 23 Low 0 3e+05
391 2093 9763.145 6439 0 1 10000-15000 14-23 Single 4 33 Low 0 1e+05
429 11233 36016.321 5949 0 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 4 29 Medium 0 5e+05
459 3839 119880.000 12442 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 24 Low 0 1e+05
466 6452 15951.110 14503 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 22 Low 0 5e+04
484 10925 40784.553 8460 1 1 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 24 Low 1 5e+05
542 385 81434.919 9332 0 1 7500-10000 24-33 Single 1 45 High 0 5e+05
569 1682 102256.288 7054 1 1 15000+ 14-23 Single 2 37 Low 0 1e+05
569 11376 135318.705 6534 0 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 3 26 High 1 3e+05
579 9501 7942.275 4937 0 1 0-7500 54-63 Married 2 70 Medium 0 5e+05
591 6143 10921.049 7076 0 1 15000+ 14-23 Single 2 37 High 0 1e+05
630 2661 79833.405 8486 0 1 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 22 Medium 0 5e+05
632 266 119700.000 19067 0 2 10000-15000 0-3 Single 3 19 High 3 1e+05
638 12439 56539.803 11679 0 2 7500-10000 34-43 Married 1 53 High 0 5e+04
653 11742 9970.465 6251 0 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 4 27 Medium 0 3e+05
661 10676 44546.224 7869 0 1 0-7500 44-53 Married 3 65 Medium 0 5e+04
679 4235 26765.813 13681 0 2 7500-10000 24-33 Single 1 49 Low 1 1e+05
685 2454 27305.808 8302 1 1 10000-15000 44-53 Married 2 61 Medium 3 5e+04
719 5937 21149.783 19997 0 2 10000-15000 0-3 Single 1 19 Medium 0 5e+04
793 6776 198037.554 6534 0 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 3 29 Low 0 3e+05
806 3380 59880.000 19879 1 3 15000+ 0-3 Single 3 19 Low 0 5e+04
856 8207 36108.439 6877 0 1 7500-10000 24-33 Married 3 48 High 2 3e+05
881 1686 15909.689 10397 0 2 15000+ 14-23 Single 3 30 High 0 1e+05
883 11809 20614.581 8655 0 1 15000+ 4-8 Single 4 21 Low 0 5e+04
898 10744 5508.839 4892 0 1 7500-10000 14-23 Married 2 37 High 0 3e+05
compare.pp %>% filter(`Pure Premium` < `Predicted Pure Premium`, `Pure Premium` > 0) %>% slice(1:40) %>% qkable() # type 2 : lower observed than predicted
Policy Number Vehicle Number Pure Premium Predicted Pure Premium Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years Accident Points (AP) last 3 years Annual Mileage Driver Experience Band Marital Status Territory Driver Age Credit Score Late Fees Liability Limit
1 6125 120.083050 8112 1 1 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 21 High 0 5e+04
10 6386 7659.896762 17800 0 3 7500-10000 0-3 Single 2 19 Low 0 5e+04
16 14610 122.812605 7966 0 1 7500-10000 34-43 Married 1 51 High 0 5e+05
21 12703 120.002350 9481 0 1 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 24 Low 0 5e+04
42 644 1331.159272 21258 3 1 7500-10000 44-53 Married 1 63 Low 0 5e+04
45 10173 458.219589 7201 0 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 1 28 High 0 5e+04
50 13926 1869.713603 6653 0 1 0-7500 14-23 Single 2 38 High 0 3e+05
67 14663 4721.120736 12404 1 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 23 Low 0 5e+04
72 4694 3238.283113 11111 0 2 7500-10000 34-43 Married 2 50 Medium 0 5e+04
134 10731 170.466932 8879 0 1 7500-10000 24-33 Single 2 41 Low 0 5e+04
160 5309 5059.700585 13868 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 2 20 Medium 1 1e+05
160 11547 9556.861052 13639 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 23 Low 0 1e+05
170 1998 77.453846 14571 1 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 23 Medium 0 3e+05
185 176 65.444578 8252 0 1 0-7500 44-53 Married 1 65 Low 0 5e+04
188 8759 124.945101 6439 0 1 10000-15000 14-23 Single 4 37 Medium 0 3e+05
227 13876 2374.628316 5949 0 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 4 26 High 0 1e+05
228 9054 1554.679772 12688 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 4 21 Low 0 5e+05
229 9047 236.542783 6851 0 1 0-7500 9-13 Single 2 27 Medium 0 3e+05
239 11550 236.838725 7212 0 1 7500-10000 24-33 Married 1 45 High 0 5e+04
242 4193 7927.919848 8347 0 1 10000-15000 44-53 Married 3 68 High 0 5e+04
245 12361 93.473388 8372 0 1 0-7500 34-43 Married 1 59 Medium 0 3e+05
255 12575 195.377965 17066 0 2 7500-10000 0-3 Single 2 19 Low 0 5e+04
263 11482 121.608025 10364 1 2 15000+ 14-23 Single 3 33 High 1 1e+05
284 250 156.448694 8891 1 1 0-7500 4-8 Single 2 21 Low 0 1e+05
287 8863 2045.819190 7659 0 1 15000+ 9-13 Single 1 27 Medium 0 3e+05
295 7144 182.375381 9943 0 1 10000-15000 4-8 Single 1 21 Low 0 3e+05
296 6859 2929.094250 6853 0 1 7500-10000 9-13 Single 1 25 High 0 1e+05
322 2562 127.074275 15112 0 2 7500-10000 34-43 Single 1 53 Low 1 5e+04
362 8086 1162.610422 8605 1 1 10000-15000 4-8 Single 4 23 High 0 1e+05
370 7186 120.379670 11107 1 3 15000+ 9-13 Single 2 29 Low 0 5e+04
379 4132 4.918854 10046 0 2 7500-10000 9-13 Single 1 26 Low 0 1e+05
383 7407 58.551625 8853 1 1 10000-15000 34-43 Married 1 56 High 0 3e+05
388 12099 69.613962 11930 0 2 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 24 Medium 0 1e+05
413 14921 1415.149733 8754 0 1 10000-15000 44-53 Married 1 65 High 0 3e+05
422 432 174.921748 8347 0 1 10000-15000 44-53 Married 3 63 Medium 0 5e+04
425 2623 654.456802 13639 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 21 Low 2 1e+05
427 14101 11064.581506 14532 1 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 1 24 Medium 0 5e+04
458 8477 1800.937360 9970 0 1 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 20 Low 0 5e+04
463 1179 6975.193925 9507 0 1 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 22 Low 0 1e+05
476 4442 6376.173124 7659 0 1 15000+ 9-13 Single 1 26 High 0 5e+04

We can see that some rows (individuals) are fit quite closely by our model, whereas some are quite a way off. Perhaps we can get a better fit by capping high severity claims at $100,000. Then predictions of high severities should be interpreted as possibly higher severity.

Re-constructing the Model with Capped Severity

pp.capped <- df.loss[["Pure Premium"]]
tmp <- pp.capped > 100000
pp.capped[tmp] <- 100000 # assign cap of $100,000 in PP

df.loss <- df.loss %>% mutate(`PP Capped` =  pp.capped) 
# %>% select(1:2, 11, 3:10)


# glm tweedie capped (glm tw c)
glm.tw.c <- glm(formula = pp.capped ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, family = tweedie(var.power = p.hat, link.power = 0), start = glm.init$coefficients, data = df.loss)
summary(glm.tw.c)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = pp.capped ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + 
##     x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, family = tweedie(var.power = p.hat, 
##     link.power = 0), data = df.loss, start = glm.init$coefficients)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -8.9497  -0.0694  -0.0694  -0.0694  14.9911  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     -2.34197    0.19260 -12.160  < 2e-16 ***
## x.conviction.L   0.83367    0.22252   3.746 0.000180 ***
## x.conviction.Q   0.49735    0.17073   2.913 0.003580 ** 
## x.conviction.C   0.22521    0.09381   2.401 0.016369 *  
## x.mileage.L      0.03690    0.02603   1.418 0.156295    
## x.mileage.Q      0.03138    0.02542   1.234 0.217170    
## x.mileage.C     -0.09932    0.02493  -3.983  6.8e-05 ***
## x.experience.L  -0.26469    0.21897  -1.209 0.226748    
## x.experience.Q  -0.12543    0.21235  -0.591 0.554738    
## x.experience.C  -0.58121    0.18888  -3.077 0.002092 ** 
## x.experience^4  -0.07659    0.15416  -0.497 0.619323    
## x.experience^5  -0.24826    0.11989  -2.071 0.038391 *  
## x.experience^6  -0.45401    0.09381  -4.840  1.3e-06 ***
## x.experience^7  -0.23625    0.07384  -3.199 0.001378 ** 
## x.experience^8  -0.07872    0.05444  -1.446 0.148146    
## x.experience^9  -0.07951    0.04078  -1.950 0.051213 .  
## x.accident.L    32.05443    0.44615  71.848  < 2e-16 ***
## x.accident.Q   -23.48979    0.33259 -70.628  < 2e-16 ***
## x.accident.C    10.32694    0.15015  68.777  < 2e-16 ***
## x.marital.L     -0.12760    0.03410  -3.742 0.000183 ***
## x.territory2    -0.06745    0.03322  -2.030 0.042313 *  
## x.territory3    -0.08151    0.03516  -2.318 0.020435 *  
## x.territory4    -0.10372    0.03628  -2.859 0.004257 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for Tweedie family taken to be 8.216501)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2213257  on 44999  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  367501  on 44977  degrees of freedom
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 11
AICtweedie(glm.tw.c) # aic in glm is unsupported for tweedie, so use this value 
## [1] 112712.7
# confint(glm.tweedie) # run if needed
logLiktweedie(glm.tw.c)
## [1] -56332.37
pp.cap.hat <- predict(glm.tw.c, type="response")

# compare pure premiums
compare.pp.capped <- compare.pp %>% mutate(`PP Capped` = floor(pp.capped), `Predicted PP Capped` = floor(pp.cap.hat), `Pure Premium` = floor(`Pure Premium`) ) %>% as_tibble()
compare.pp.capped <- compare.pp.capped %>% select(1:2, 15:16, 3:14)


# compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Pure Premium` > `Predicted Pure Premium`) %>% slice(1:40) %>% qkable()

# compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Pure Premium` < `Predicted Pure Premium`, `Pure Premium` > 0) %>% slice(1:40) %>% qkable()

compare.pp.capped %>% filter( abs(`PP Capped` - `Predicted PP Capped`) < 4000, `Pure Premium` > 0) %>% select(`PP Capped`, `Predicted PP Capped`, `Driver Age`, `Annual Mileage`, `Marital Status`, `Territory`, `Credit Score`, `Late Fees`) %>% qkable()
PP Capped Predicted PP Capped Driver Age Annual Mileage Marital Status Territory Credit Score Late Fees
11546 7604 24 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
1869 5768 38 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
9556 12084 23 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
2374 5019 26 7500-10000 Single 4 High 0
7927 6597 68 10000-15000 Married 3 High 0
2929 5567 25 7500-10000 Single 1 High 0
9763 5824 33 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
11064 13963 24 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
6975 7077 22 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
15951 12594 22 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
6376 6207 26 15000+ Single 1 High 0
4023 7177 21 15000+ Single 2 High 1
7942 4877 70 0-7500 Married 2 Medium 0
14146 12937 20 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
13229 12411 21 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
9229 9131 25 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
8885 9084 26 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
7917 9105 19 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
3219 5955 36 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
4633 6229 35 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
6161 8752 30 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
5508 4341 37 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
4976 7373 21 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
7690 8208 19 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
5943 6422 61 15000+ Married 2 High 0
5698 7999 23 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
8278 5562 37 7500-10000 Single 1 High 0
5642 6887 24 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
3380 5768 38 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
8840 5797 33 15000+ Single 2 High 0
7957 9180 50 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
12897 15338 19 15000+ Single 2 High 0
10656 13472 20 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
9180 7373 22 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
7513 6461 32 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
2481 6162 60 0-7500 Married 4 Medium 0
3471 7097 58 10000-15000 Married 3 High 0
2211 5199 39 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
2811 6170 32 0-7500 Single 1 High 0
6970 6162 61 0-7500 Married 4 High 0
7503 9151 19 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
8394 6045 26 10000-15000 Single 2 High 0
5688 5824 30 10000-15000 Single 4 Medium 0
9430 6652 48 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
6180 6201 30 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
9189 5199 33 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
10002 12298 48 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
2460 6348 23 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
7445 6859 48 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
3963 7141 21 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
5843 6348 24 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
13963 11601 22 15000+ Single 2 High 0
3477 6670 27 0-7500 Single 1 Medium 0
17985 16480 19 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
6426 5768 34 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
7582 6039 36 10000-15000 Single 2 High 0
2951 6922 20 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
7460 10552 25 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
11482 12930 21 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
9210 6704 28 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
3672 5036 76 10000-15000 Married 3 Low 0
7964 6133 66 7500-10000 Married 3 Medium 0
7722 7157 66 10000-15000 Married 1 High 0
2737 6032 26 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
5088 6688 66 15000+ Married 4 High 0
6543 9634 25 10000-15000 Single 3 High 2
7870 8208 19 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
9732 7177 22 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
8896 6332 62 15000+ Married 3 High 0
10600 7541 48 15000+ Single 3 High 0
2659 6559 48 10000-15000 Married 3 Medium 0
6709 6631 25 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
9395 11381 21 0-7500 Single 3 Medium 0
8810 7116 44 10000-15000 Married 1 Low 0
8917 5562 31 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
7274 6012 28 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
7116 5999 65 7500-10000 Married 4 High 0
6978 10405 21 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
11663 11601 21 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
9834 9634 25 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
7793 10453 28 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
5941 7141 24 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
4665 7116 48 10000-15000 Married 1 High 0
9971 8807 57 0-7500 Single 1 High 0
5639 6952 22 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
5087 6835 62 0-7500 Married 1 Medium 0
6951 5415 33 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
7233 7639 21 0-7500 Single 1 Medium 2
11909 11917 21 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
2134 5773 27 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
6135 5415 34 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
7160 4772 38 15000+ Married 3 Medium 0
5613 6941 58 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
8149 6385 48 15000+ Married 2 Medium 0
7278 10260 21 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
6246 10033 29 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
2987 6045 26 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
10444 8412 29 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
2588 6039 33 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
2254 6039 31 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
9430 5692 25 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
11385 7773 57 10000-15000 Married 2 Medium 0
6268 6332 62 15000+ Married 3 High 0
5538 6234 28 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
8709 11439 23 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
6185 6941 50 10000-15000 Married 4 High 0
7911 6663 31 0-7500 Single 1 Medium 0
3673 5955 31 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
2479 5721 28 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
3311 7197 58 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
9124 6461 38 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 2
9562 12411 22 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
10894 10453 26 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
6103 8112 29 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
9051 10891 29 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
10071 8259 40 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
6845 5199 35 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
9180 6909 52 15000+ Married 2 Medium 0
6643 6126 47 0-7500 Married 4 High 0
5520 8143 40 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
14315 13410 22 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
6068 6812 58 15000+ Married 3 Medium 0
3818 6234 25 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
12904 14725 19 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
9321 6461 34 10000-15000 Single 1 High 0
8878 5542 28 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
14774 11542 20 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
5950 8292 24 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
6151 5824 34 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
8210 7353 56 0-7500 Married 1 High 0
9471 9709 36 0-7500 Single 4 Medium 0
8324 6422 64 15000+ Married 2 Low 0
5382 3167 90 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
7291 6629 53 7500-10000 Married 1 High 0
10780 9201 26 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
3555 5802 29 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
7459 7041 21 0-7500 Single 3 Medium 0
19488 17346 19 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
6005 6039 36 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
4242 5590 36 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
9374 7375 47 15000+ Single 4 High 0
8223 11764 21 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
12869 10405 24 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
7251 8314 51 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
3250 5942 33 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
15066 11131 22 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
8756 7319 52 0-7500 Married 3 Medium 0
2839 5178 39 15000+ Married 1 Low 0
5721 9322 31 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
5649 6461 32 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
1827 5132 27 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
7221 6110 58 7500-10000 Married 3 High 0
6575 6984 28 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
3077 6629 54 7500-10000 Married 1 Medium 0
10546 7376 41 15000+ Married 1 High 0
6374 5768 38 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
6657 3024 93 7500-10000 Married 1 Low 0
13249 11656 23 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
9654 11656 24 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
5053 6170 36 0-7500 Single 1 Medium 0
11685 11828 51 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
11085 13120 20 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
9915 6873 50 0-7500 Married 2 High 0
11231 12145 21 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
9887 7195 59 15000+ Married 4 High 0
6431 8574 53 7500-10000 Single 1 High 0
14612 11131 20 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
3592 6437 24 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
7436 5127 33 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
4229 7225 66 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
3345 5132 27 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
6300 6037 32 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
3491 5132 29 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
4432 7041 22 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
3570 7391 59 15000+ Married 1 Medium 0
2621 6264 43 0-7500 Married 3 Medium 0
5439 5955 33 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
13863 12937 20 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
5395 7338 47 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
8599 5445 36 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
14026 12653 24 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
1838 5596 29 15000+ Single 4 High 0
5214 7963 23 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
4676 5132 28 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
5494 5204 26 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
3050 5692 25 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
9590 12587 23 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
17089 13776 42 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
7797 8936 55 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
4105 6461 31 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
2650 5014 39 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
10952 13410 20 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
3842 6126 46 7500-10000 Married 1 Medium 0
14867 12594 21 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
4093 5199 37 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
3953 5692 25 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
5536 5802 27 15000+ Single 2 High 0
1864 5019 26 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
8533 12082 24 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
8772 9534 19 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
12926 10995 26 15000+ Single 2 High 0
7971 5961 27 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
2742 6348 21 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
9426 9771 28 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
5546 5522 41 7500-10000 Married 4 High 0
4384 7137 44 15000+ Married 4 Medium 0
3268 6348 20 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
4053 6812 53 15000+ Married 3 Low 0
8882 9331 28 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
15991 15158 23 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
3146 5721 28 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
3228 6670 27 0-7500 Single 1 High 0
10282 10181 25 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
8293 6830 45 15000+ Married 1 Low 0
9050 7375 47 15000+ Single 4 High 0
4401 7188 30 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
10255 7177 23 15000+ Single 2 High 0
2633 6157 41 15000+ Married 4 Medium 0
9439 6184 41 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
7457 7338 48 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
10416 7647 43 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
4629 6012 29 0-7500 Single 4 Medium 0
878 4186 38 7500-10000 Married 4 Medium 0
5051 6126 45 7500-10000 Married 1 Low 0
1149 4748 39 0-7500 Married 3 High 0
4756 6126 46 0-7500 Married 4 Medium 0
7685 6887 24 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
6579 6870 63 15000+ Married 1 High 0
5882 6859 46 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
9569 12594 23 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
7661 5824 35 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
7813 7391 52 15000+ Married 1 High 0
10786 8250 21 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
1227 5199 31 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
2573 5019 26 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
12762 13410 20 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
7320 8990 37 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
2257 5567 29 7500-10000 Single 1 High 0
6077 9988 29 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
4386 8143 42 15000+ Single 3 High 0
5310 6012 29 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
2106 6043 28 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
6980 5204 26 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
5184 6528 27 10000-15000 Single 2 High 0
15494 12348 22 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
12350 12355 20 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
9966 12145 21 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
1465 4397 73 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
3287 6296 46 15000+ Married 3 Low 0
8604 7478 24 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
2886 6196 53 7500-10000 Married 2 Low 0
16991 13120 20 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
3089 6207 29 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
5619 4834 71 15000+ Married 3 High 0
4945 6922 21 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
7105 5218 70 0-7500 Married 1 High 0
9857 6348 22 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
13379 10033 29 15000+ Single 1 High 0
6675 6039 36 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
6690 6045 25 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
10385 13600 23 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
2821 6196 54 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
10743 8811 51 15000+ Single 3 High 0
5159 6012 28 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
11236 12145 23 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
6308 8819 41 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
10428 6692 58 7500-10000 Married 2 Medium 0
4003 5647 45 7500-10000 Married 3 High 0
14799 12870 20 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
7273 7647 44 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
5842 6162 63 0-7500 Married 4 Low 0
4859 7141 21 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
16353 12594 21 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
1017 4877 74 0-7500 Married 2 Low 0
8877 5679 65 7500-10000 Married 3 Medium 0
2700 5773 25 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
6406 7604 23 0-7500 Single 3 Medium 0
7619 6855 23 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
5670 6629 53 7500-10000 Married 1 Low 0
3973 7437 24 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
2392 5797 34 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
6468 5955 33 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
5800 6389 66 0-7500 Married 2 High 0
5556 6922 21 15000+ Single 4 High 0
4918 6264 47 0-7500 Married 3 Medium 0
7008 6704 26 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
7005 7211 24 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
1759 5692 25 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
1927 5036 71 10000-15000 Married 3 High 0
10811 7211 22 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
6337 6928 43 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
14421 11295 22 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
15539 12421 41 10000-15000 Married 1 High 0
7277 9370 33 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
4585 5726 40 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
5194 7177 22 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
5308 6201 32 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
2118 5687 37 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
3327 5567 26 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
7294 6173 35 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
9857 6220 63 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
4593 8045 52 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
6727 10405 23 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
11651 13600 23 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
12001 10552 29 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
3416 5824 38 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
8344 6437 26 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
5228 6039 35 10000-15000 Single 2 High 0
1808 5773 27 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
7524 7077 22 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
13726 13120 22 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
4416 5204 28 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
9372 5590 31 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
8982 11188 24 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
4291 7225 63 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
13016 12418 24 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
3751 6173 37 15000+ Single 3 High 0
18872 14877 41 10000-15000 Single 1 High 0
6119 5204 25 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
11355 10837 21 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
7350 7903 54 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
2164 5596 26 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
6986 6522 36 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
4642 7211 21 10000-15000 Single 4 Medium 0
9763 6266 25 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
7209 6652 40 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
4094 6452 63 10000-15000 Married 4 High 0
5810 9423 29 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
11915 13120 24 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
5499 6332 66 15000+ Married 3 Medium 0
13633 15615 21 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
13632 11295 21 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
3629 5721 26 15000+ Single 3 High 0
2193 5955 34 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
3026 6870 61 15000+ Married 1 Low 0
12948 12493 62 10000-15000 Married 1 Low 0
2759 6196 52 7500-10000 Married 2 Medium 0
1591 5567 29 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
11654 13472 24 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
11843 11946 56 15000+ Married 1 Medium 0
9376 10770 30 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
11373 12086 21 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
14037 13403 22 15000+ Single 1 High 0
2304 6179 27 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
14879 12348 20 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
9020 5961 25 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
10342 6922 23 15000+ Single 4 High 0
9325 12348 22 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
8732 12653 24 10000-15000 Single 4 Medium 0
6904 6629 50 7500-10000 Married 1 Medium 0
4275 7712 24 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
5877 6690 64 10000-15000 Married 2 Medium 0
9348 5768 31 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
6906 6296 47 15000+ Married 3 Low 0
2446 5415 33 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
8630 8484 41 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
3684 7197 51 10000-15000 Married 2 Low 0
6572 7683 44 10000-15000 Single 4 Medium 0
8949 12587 24 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
3249 6629 52 0-7500 Married 4 Low 0
8030 5562 35 0-7500 Single 4 High 0
220 3010 102 7500-10000 Married 3 Medium 0
5973 6162 63 0-7500 Married 4 High 0
15324 12930 22 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
9080 5797 35 15000+ Single 2 High 0
3305 6007 31 0-7500 Single 4 Medium 0
7750 5127 39 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
1102 4727 71 15000+ Married 4 Low 0
12797 12418 21 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
3634 6110 50 7500-10000 Married 3 Low 0
5527 6437 28 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
13142 15158 21 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
3341 6290 32 10000-15000 Single 4 Medium 0
3672 7376 46 15000+ Married 1 Medium 0
1785 5615 35 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
8479 5768 34 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
8063 7077 21 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
3949 6685 34 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
4862 6763 42 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
10170 12908 54 15000+ Married 3 Low 0
4947 7116 48 10000-15000 Married 1 Low 0
5133 8412 25 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
9558 6763 46 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
4223 7177 23 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
6702 5797 38 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
4094 7437 21 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
9859 10176 25 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
4667 4186 38 7500-10000 Married 4 High 0
11804 14320 22 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
5493 9045 27 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
5820 6461 34 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
4937 4335 70 7500-10000 Married 3 High 0
9703 6007 33 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
6600 7678 24 15000+ Single 1 High 0
11743 11439 23 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
5584 6126 43 0-7500 Married 4 High 0
4653 6348 22 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
9714 8835 41 15000+ Single 1 High 0
16316 13600 20 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
10368 8118 55 0-7500 Single 3 Medium 0
11196 12354 21 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
1790 5716 32 15000+ Single 3 High 0
1800 5768 34 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
10895 8181 44 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
10709 12594 22 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
4974 6290 39 10000-15000 Single 4 Medium 0
4029 6830 47 15000+ Married 1 High 0
10428 8915 76 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
7531 5132 29 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
8535 11601 24 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
11567 9379 28 15000+ Single 2 High 0
4479 6170 32 0-7500 Single 1 High 0
8848 10835 25 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
6402 6207 27 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
5857 6663 30 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
8094 8112 27 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
9812 6352 41 0-7500 Married 2 High 0
9948 10068 31 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
11010 7647 49 15000+ Single 2 High 0
3445 6649 47 15000+ Married 4 Medium 0
9811 6196 52 7500-10000 Married 2 Low 0
905 4644 38 7500-10000 Married 1 Medium 0
2137 5773 27 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
12019 10995 26 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
12845 10033 29 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
6338 5721 26 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
8897 6348 23 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
10050 7678 24 15000+ Single 1 High 0
3582 6528 28 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
12548 10891 26 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
5351 6654 61 7500-10000 Married 1 Low 0
7497 7382 69 0-7500 Married 1 Medium 0
7187 10181 25 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
14118 10405 21 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
5136 6902 33 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
12974 11630 22 7500-10000 Single 4 High 0
9646 12084 23 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
14221 14549 22 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
14379 11601 24 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
8820 6704 24 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
1778 5590 39 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
3817 7097 56 10000-15000 Married 3 Medium 0
14548 12084 21 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
2334 5537 34 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
8212 6812 59 15000+ Married 3 High 0
12189 10033 25 15000+ Single 1 High 0
4296 6870 65 15000+ Married 1 Medium 0
9252 5562 37 7500-10000 Single 1 High 0
14413 12355 21 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
7519 10260 24 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
9412 10405 22 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
2501 5647 48 7500-10000 Married 3 Low 0
11084 11336 38 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
2257 5961 28 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
12892 10405 24 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
649 4397 76 7500-10000 Married 2 Medium 0
8976 5797 34 15000+ Single 2 High 0
13626 11946 53 15000+ Married 1 Medium 0
3802 6110 53 7500-10000 Married 3 High 0
3111 4877 71 0-7500 Married 2 High 0
2798 5824 34 10000-15000 Single 4 High 0
4888 6629 58 0-7500 Married 4 Medium 0
7772 5721 26 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
2600 5679 65 7500-10000 Married 3 Low 0
5267 8899 21 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
7692 6615 43 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
1783 5542 28 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
4416 8404 30 7500-10000 Single 2 High 0
11534 8523 44 10000-15000 Single 1 High 0
7765 7391 55 15000+ Married 1 Low 0
3692 7373 24 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
6378 10181 26 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
5379 5824 31 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
4542 4748 70 7500-10000 Married 2 High 0
9173 7319 59 0-7500 Married 3 High 0
5982 5961 29 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
7426 9634 26 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
8728 6201 32 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
8884 5797 30 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
14202 11455 25 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
6189 7141 21 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
9045 5955 30 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
8683 7373 23 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
8300 10024 32 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
7417 9771 27 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
7173 5773 28 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
10944 14036 21 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
10373 6690 65 10000-15000 Married 2 Medium 0
6808 6007 31 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
4650 6208 24 7500-10000 Single 4 Medium 0
4610 5797 34 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
5782 6179 25 15000+ Single 3 High 0
2365 5716 39 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
7412 11219 50 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
7523 9625 34 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
9101 9625 34 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
2236 5596 27 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
6011 6415 46 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
15702 12411 22 15000+ Single 1 High 0
4083 5687 31 0-7500 Single 3 High 0
5007 6697 36 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
8133 9973 31 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
3950 7683 44 10000-15000 Single 4 High 0
5689 5687 36 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
12724 11080 22 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
2740 6045 28 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
8598 10825 33 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
8428 6528 27 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
8210 7373 23 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
9719 7391 51 15000+ Married 1 High 0
3045 5679 64 7500-10000 Married 3 Low 0
10914 13349 40 15000+ Single 2 High 0
2638 6385 48 15000+ Married 2 Medium 0
5077 6037 32 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
2370 6045 26 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
8010 6777 56 0-7500 Married 3 High 0
7660 6290 32 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
3203 6039 39 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
3209 6176 25 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
6691 9959 66 7500-10000 Married 1 Low 0
6140 4925 70 10000-15000 Married 4 Medium 0
3014 6830 48 15000+ Married 1 High 0
3638 5590 33 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
16351 12594 24 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
3834 6804 66 0-7500 Married 3 High 0
3914 7319 56 0-7500 Married 3 Medium 0
11763 9201 28 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
2940 6922 24 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
8316 6012 29 0-7500 Single 4 Medium 0
6692 5976 52 7500-10000 Married 4 High 0
10842 7924 40 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
3115 5768 30 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
10871 12084 23 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
8356 6855 23 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
9693 6296 44 15000+ Married 3 High 0
9184 8523 41 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
3499 5687 36 0-7500 Single 3 Medium 0
6783 6812 58 15000+ Married 3 High 0
14074 10172 37 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
6535 6855 24 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
10026 6201 34 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
1765 5679 61 7500-10000 Married 3 Low 0
7725 5824 39 10000-15000 Single 4 High 0
2178 5716 31 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
5696 6461 39 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
9429 11502 42 10000-15000 Married 1 Low 0
4091 5562 34 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
3969 6900 69 0-7500 Married 2 Medium 0
8014 6045 25 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
7483 7939 59 0-7500 Single 4 Medium 0
4244 6045 28 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
13266 13472 21 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
9223 7700 58 10000-15000 Married 1 High 0
2391 5692 25 0-7500 Single 3 High 0
7907 10542 37 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
7454 10034 21 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
8464 12348 22 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
1975 5687 34 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
6386 6812 50 15000+ Married 3 High 0
12317 13963 21 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
3039 6352 44 0-7500 Married 2 Low 0
11570 9036 30 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
8099 12084 21 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
10095 9370 39 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
2509 6332 60 15000+ Married 3 Low 0
6298 8999 25 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
6329 6796 42 0-7500 Married 1 Low 0
3807 7373 22 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
6209 6629 53 0-7500 Married 4 High 0
11899 14036 22 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
2743 5199 33 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
3757 7373 24 10000-15000 Single 3 Low 0
10482 10260 21 7500-10000 Single 3 High 0
9427 8999 25 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
1655 5567 29 7500-10000 Single 1 High 0
10337 9762 30 10000-15000 Single 2 Medium 0
7408 5567 27 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
940 4704 71 0-7500 Married 4 High 0
8243 6170 30 0-7500 Single 1 Low 0
7432 6461 37 10000-15000 Single 1 High 0
2702 5199 34 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
8667 7856 48 10000-15000 Single 3 High 0
7791 6625 31 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
7221 10714 53 0-7500 Married 4 Low 0
2907 4644 39 7500-10000 Married 1 Medium 0
9392 9423 26 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
2606 5132 29 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
3590 6467 25 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
4403 8159 51 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
6538 6922 21 15000+ Single 4 Low 0
10098 9322 35 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
10774 7177 23 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
3381 5802 27 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
11485 10176 26 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
11882 10405 22 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
9709 6763 40 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
6409 6859 49 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
2569 6296 44 15000+ Married 3 Medium 0
8462 10453 29 10000-15000 Single 1 Low 0
7573 10033 29 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
16698 12870 24 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
6486 5830 29 10000-15000 Single 4 Low 0
15437 12198 22 7500-10000 Single 2 Medium 0
6872 5014 33 7500-10000 Single 4 Low 0
1874 5768 35 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
8699 11131 24 0-7500 Single 4 High 0
1504 5127 31 7500-10000 Single 3 Medium 0
6370 6039 32 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
8319 7609 40 0-7500 Single 2 Medium 0
13508 10607 29 10000-15000 Single 2 High 0
1538 5132 26 7500-10000 Single 3 Low 0
3700 7188 36 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
5977 9768 25 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
9254 5961 28 10000-15000 Single 3 Medium 0
9214 7195 56 15000+ Married 4 Medium 0
5014 6385 49 15000+ Married 2 High 0
5352 6461 35 10000-15000 Single 1 High 0
7073 10039 26 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
2526 6332 67 15000+ Married 3 High 0
5063 5567 25 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
8764 7647 48 15000+ Single 2 High 0
5952 8412 28 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
5699 7177 24 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
1080 4682 76 7500-10000 Married 3 Low 0
2752 6260 31 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
12208 8523 44 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
14639 11455 27 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
8560 8807 50 0-7500 Single 1 Medium 0
3766 7502 44 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
8530 8999 25 7500-10000 Single 1 Medium 0
6281 6467 27 10000-15000 Single 1 High 0
10969 13472 23 15000+ Single 1 Medium 0
8780 6909 54 15000+ Married 2 High 0
1689 5596 25 15000+ Single 4 Medium 0
5111 6649 47 15000+ Married 4 Low 0
7050 7751 24 15000+ Single 2 High 0
3206 6110 54 7500-10000 Married 3 High 0
2973 6690 65 10000-15000 Married 2 High 0
6506 6201 37 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
3838 6234 29 0-7500 Single 2 Low 0
12993 9709 32 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
3768 7478 24 10000-15000 Single 2 Low 0
5346 6704 23 7500-10000 Single 4 High 0
6260 5199 38 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
4677 6461 32 10000-15000 Single 1 Medium 0
5961 6007 30 0-7500 Single 4 Low 0
7622 5760 64 7500-10000 Married 2 Low 0
15558 13258 21 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
10947 11439 22 15000+ Single 3 Low 0
6496 7496 58 10000-15000 Married 4 High 0
11582 9978 34 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
9343 7678 23 15000+ Single 1 Low 0
7725 5590 34 15000+ Single 4 High 0
5216 6201 35 15000+ Single 1 High 0
5022 5900 72 10000-15000 Married 1 High 0
6551 6812 54 15000+ Married 3 Low 0
6776 5687 35 0-7500 Single 3 Low 0
4578 6352 46 0-7500 Married 2 Medium 0
4545 8275 54 15000+ Single 2 Low 0
4149 4335 72 7500-10000 Married 3 Medium 0
3230 5768 38 0-7500 Single 2 High 0
3311 5199 33 7500-10000 Single 2 Low 0
10488 11439 24 15000+ Single 3 Medium 0
7233 7924 45 7500-10000 Single 1 Low 0
3758 5716 38 15000+ Single 3 High 0
8287 5802 29 15000+ Single 2 Medium 0
7666 7353 53 0-7500 Married 1 Medium 0
7814 7400 41 15000+ Married 2 Medium 0
3027 6690 60 10000-15000 Married 2 Medium 0
9501 6835 60 0-7500 Married 1 Medium 0

This looks like a much better fit. However, we don’t worry about our fit not being perfect–we’re interested in this model generalizing well for future observations and know that we avoid overfitting to data. Our GLM is tuned to minimize the deviation between observed and expected Pure Premiums and so generalizes to other experience data.

5. Interpreting the Model

Given the low credibility of our data as representative of the entire population of Cal Insurance’s policyholders, we will focus on the interpretation of the GLM. Individuals “below” the GLM have a lower historical loss cost than expected.

The overall goal here is balancing compliance with California’s ratemaking regulations, where our models must be equitable. However, using sequential analysis with the allowed factors can lead us to a weak classification of risk, leading to adverse selection where low-risk individuals prefer competitors with lower rates, and higher-risk individuals (who may have been rejected from competitors’ underwriting guidelines) may seek coverage from Cal Insurance (but incur high losses).

We consider two selections of individuals below: sel1 and sel2. The subset sel1 contains individuals who historically incur higher losses than average (as predicted by the GLM). This does not necessarily mean these are the individuals we want to reject via underwriting guidelines (if anything, we would like to legally charge them higher premiums), but we can expect to gain a lot of insight here.

The subset sel2 contains individuals who historically in 2013-2015 have significantly lower incurred losses than estimated by the GLM. Although this is not a causal relationship between the combination of factors and fewer incurred losses, there may be interesting insights to gain.

# selections of individuals for analysis
sel1 <- compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Pure Premium` > 2 * `Predicted Pure Premium`) 

sel2 <- compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Pure Premium` * 2 < `Predicted Pure Premium`, `Pure Premium` > 0)


# compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = compare.pp.capped$`Pure Premium`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 10, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + ggtitle("Distribution of Observed Pure Premiums") + scale_x_log10()


# compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = compare.pp.capped$`Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 20, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + ggtitle("Distribution of Projected Pure Premiums") + scale_x_log10()  


sel2 %>% ggplot(aes(x = sel2$`Pure Premium`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 10, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") +  ggtitle("Distribution of Observed Pure Premiums") 

# + scale_x_log10()


sel2 %>% ggplot(aes(x = sel2$`Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_histogram(bins = 20, fill = "lightblue", color = "lightyellow") + ggtitle("Distribution of Projected Pure Premiums")

compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Annual Mileage`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Driver Experience Band`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Predicted Pure Premium \nby Driver Experience Years") 

compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Experience Band`, y = `Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Driver Experience Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Annual Mileage`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Predicted Pure Premium \nby Annual Mileage") 

# loss %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Adjusted Loss`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "identity", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom")  + ggtitle("Total loss by Territory and Marital Status")

The predicted Pure Premiums are generally monotonic as Annual Mileage increases, with the exception of the third mileage band, where it appears that low-experience drivers with this mileage are expected to incur a relatively high average loss. This may be due to a tradeoff between lower mileage corresponding to less road-time and exposure to risk, versus high mileage (150,000+) corresponding to more skilled drivers, despite fewer years of experience.

GLM factors as a proxy for Credit Score

compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Experience Band`, y = `Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Driver Experience Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Credit Score`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Predicted Pure Premium by Credit Score") 

compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Annual Mileage`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Credit Score`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Predicted Pure Premium by Credit Score") 

compare.pp.capped %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Predicted PP Capped`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Credit Score`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Average Predicted Pure Premium by Credit Score") 

The past filed relativities for territory (1.2, 1.1, 0.9, 0.8) appear to be insufficient to distinguish the expected loss from each territory.

# compound poisson from zhang
glm.cp <- cpglm(formula = pp ~ x.conviction + x.mileage + x.experience + x.accident + x.marital + x.territory, link = 0, data = df.loss)
#  does not converge; do not use
# brute force "optimize" approach; # NOT USED

start <- c(glm.tweedie$coefficients/2, glm.tweedie$coefficients/2)

# compute negative log likelihood (nll)
nll <- function(param){
  # f0, s0 for offset
  f0 <- param[1]
  f1 <- param[2]
  f2 <- param[3]
  f3 <- param[4]
  f4 <- param[5]
  f5 <- param[6]
  f6 <- param[7]
  
  s0 <- param[1]
  s1 <- param[2]
  s2 <- param[3]
  s3 <- param[4]
  s4 <- param[5]
  s5 <- param[6]
  s6 <- param[7]
  
  # lambda <- exp(sum( c(f0, f1, f2, f3, f4, f5, f6) * c(1, x.vec) ))
  lambda <- exp(f0 + f1*x.conviction + f2*x.mileage + f3*x.experience + f4*x.accident + f5*x.marital + f6*x.territory)
  
  # theta <- exp(sum( c(s0, s1, s2, s3, s4, s5, s6) * c(1, x.vec) ))
  theta <- exp(s0 + s1*x.conviction + s2*x.mileage + s3*x.experience + s4*x.accident + s5*x.marital + s6*x.territory)
  
  tau <- alpha1 * theta
  p <- (alpha1 + 2) / (alpha1 + 1)
  mu <- lambda * tau 
  print(p) # debug
  phi <- abs( lambda^(1-p) * tau^(2-p) / (2-p) )
  
  #log-likelihood 
  ll <- log(dtweedie(pp, p, mu, phi))
  return(-sum(ll))
}

bfmle <- optim(start, nll)
bfmle

Now because we hand-select the factors to include into our GLM (as opposed to randomized subsetting), a \(k\)-fold cross-validation of data would not be effective. We trained our data on the experience years 2013-2015, reasoning that four years experience captures a good amount of the underlying policyholder risk behavior.


6. Creating Underwriting Guidelines

From our exhibits above and GLM, we want to essentially reject drivers with the following specifications, given in the table below. Of course, in the process, we can expect to unfortunately reject individuals who are falsely projected to incur high losses.

rej <- compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Predicted Pure Premium` > 12000)

rej %>% qkable() # reject these
Policy Number Vehicle Number PP Capped Predicted PP Capped Pure Premium Predicted Pure Premium Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years Accident Points (AP) last 3 years Annual Mileage Driver Experience Band Marital Status Territory Driver Age Credit Score Late Fees Liability Limit
10 6386 7659 14934 7659 17800 0 3 7500-10000 0-3 Single 2 19 Low 0 5e+04
42 644 1331 20855 1331 21258 3 1 7500-10000 44-53 Married 1 63 Low 0 5e+04
67 14663 4721 13049 4721 12404 1 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 23 Low 0 5e+04
144 10613 100000 14549 167697 15197 1 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 24 Low 0 3e+05
160 5309 5059 12086 5059 13868 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 2 20 Medium 1 1e+05
160 11547 9556 12084 9556 13639 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 23 Low 0 1e+05
170 1998 77 13403 77 14571 1 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 23 Medium 0 3e+05
222 12590 59700 13404 59700 14333 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 1 20 Low 1 5e+04
228 9054 1554 11188 1554 12688 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 4 21 Low 0 5e+05
255 12575 195 13757 195 17066 0 2 7500-10000 0-3 Single 2 19 Low 0 5e+04
311 2430 0 11131 0 13077 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 20 Low 0 1e+05
322 2562 127 12833 127 15112 0 2 7500-10000 34-43 Single 1 53 Low 1 5e+04
359 12495 29606 12355 29606 13667 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 5e+05
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7893 12456 0 12126 0 13709 0 2 0-7500 24-33 Single 3 44 Low 0 1e+05
7903 8529 100000 11946 139641 13053 0 2 15000+ 34-43 Married 1 54 Medium 0 5e+05
7953 1523 147 10380 147 12241 0 2 15000+ 44-53 Married 2 67 High 0 1e+05
7983 13700 177 11601 177 13905 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 24 Low 0 3e+05
7988 13134 8093 12418 8093 14536 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 24 Medium 0 1e+05
7994 12617 100000 11381 157621 13103 0 2 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 24 Low 0 3e+05
8007 5492 7148 11295 7148 12976 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 21 Low 0 5e+04
8015 8116 131 12587 131 12616 1 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 4 21 Low 0 3e+05
8048 14144 50012 11138 50012 13005 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 1e+05
8063 3226 820 14320 820 16536 2 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 3e+05
8066 8446 1903 13404 1903 14333 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 1 22 Low 0 5e+04
8140 10640 2998 12937 2998 14497 0 3 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 22 Medium 0 1e+05
8182 2954 1871 12594 1871 14503 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 21 Low 0 1e+05
8226 3875 0 11381 0 13103 0 2 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 22 Medium 0 5e+05
8252 14926 0 11381 0 13103 0 2 0-7500 4-8 Single 3 22 Medium 0 5e+04
8255 13794 22811 12086 22811 13868 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 2 21 Medium 0 3e+05
8281 3307 0 13776 0 15251 0 2 10000-15000 24-33 Single 1 41 High 0 5e+04
8299 9763 0 10260 0 12469 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 3e+05
8304 1298 0 11439 0 13937 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 24 Low 0 5e+04
8413 13192 15415 10260 15415 12469 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 1e+05
8415 10493 39364 11188 39364 12688 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 4 21 Medium 0 3e+05
8431 13816 4001 11601 4001 13905 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 22 Medium 0 3e+05
8476 4203 499 11917 499 13900 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 5e+04
8502 156 69095 13600 69095 14458 1 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 21 Low 0 1e+05
8507 7027 0 9272 0 12031 2 1 10000-15000 4-8 Single 1 22 High 0 5e+04
8523 13199 0 12898 0 14663 0 2 15000+ 34-43 Single 4 50 Low 0 1e+05
8545 8659 120 11601 120 13905 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 23 Medium 0 1e+05
8554 12913 120 11439 120 13937 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 22 Medium 0 5e+04
8633 4980 0 11439 0 13937 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 22 Low 0 1e+05
8641 12114 0 8798 0 17017 0 1 10000-15000 64-73 Married 3 87 High 0 5e+04
8655 14469 52013 10260 52013 12469 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 23 Low 0 3e+05
8680 13647 0 10405 0 12441 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 24 Medium 0 5e+05
8705 3188 0 11601 0 13905 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 22 Low 0 1e+05
8709 3620 632 12418 632 14536 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 21 Low 0 3e+05
8710 4917 2991 13335 2991 13699 1 2 0-7500 4-8 Single 1 23 Low 0 5e+05
8720 2533 4352 11601 4352 13905 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 22 Medium 0 5e+04
8757 11135 22341 12594 22341 14503 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 2 23 Low 0 5e+04
8766 14451 10969 13472 10969 15244 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 23 Medium 0 1e+05
8781 5907 464 12084 464 13639 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 24 Medium 0 1e+05
8784 9822 1788 13403 1788 14571 1 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 23 Medium 0 3e+05
8837 3954 120 10405 120 12441 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 22 Medium 0 1e+05
8872 11047 124 11656 124 12655 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 4 21 Medium 0 5e+04
8948 3371 0 14877 0 15204 1 2 10000-15000 24-33 Single 1 43 High 0 5e+04
8949 7890 746 12411 746 14616 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 23 Low 0 1e+05
9039 7910 4443 12937 4443 14497 0 3 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 22 Low 0 5e+04
9043 10199 6948 12930 6948 14577 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 1 24 Medium 0 5e+04
9045 14057 17615 12937 17615 14497 0 3 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 21 Low 0 1e+05
9057 13656 35 13776 35 15251 0 2 10000-15000 24-33 Single 1 40 Medium 0 1e+05
9071 6868 125 12083 125 12442 0 3 0-7500 4-8 Single 4 22 Low 0 5e+04
9090 1308 49448 12411 49448 14616 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 21 Medium 0 3e+05
9111 11778 19111 14549 19111 15197 1 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 22 Low 0 1e+05
9123 7099 2581 11917 2581 13900 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 3 22 Low 0 5e+05
9133 11486 15558 13258 15558 16863 2 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 21 Low 0 1e+05
9135 859 10947 11439 10947 13937 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 22 Low 0 1e+05
9209 2525 638 11295 638 12976 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 24 Medium 0 5e+04
9274 4293 0 12465 0 13033 1 2 0-7500 4-8 Single 2 23 Medium 0 5e+04
9279 11598 20 12084 20 13639 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 21 Low 0 1e+05
9292 12383 1908 12411 1908 14616 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 23 Low 0 5e+05
9347 3168 0 11131 0 13077 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 1 23 High 0 5e+04
9359 10523 120 11086 120 13016 0 2 7500-10000 24-33 Single 2 40 Low 0 5e+04
9380 5074 55069 11104 55069 12867 0 2 15000+ 44-53 Married 1 66 Low 0 5e+04
9423 1987 0 12411 0 14616 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 22 High 0 1e+05
9517 13016 0 8217 0 14605 0 1 0-7500 64-73 Married 4 88 High 0 3e+05
9551 5435 0 10405 0 12441 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 21 Low 0 3e+05
9553 1865 0 11996 0 14377 0 2 7500-10000 34-43 Single 2 50 Medium 0 5e+04
9556 5209 20791 12028 20791 12965 1 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 22 Low 0 5e+04
9590 4692 0 12354 0 13894 1 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 21 Low 0 3e+05
9669 8981 6800 12059 6800 12380 1 2 15000+ 34-43 Married 2 50 Medium 0 3e+05
9689 742 23092 11295 23092 12976 0 3 7500-10000 4-8 Single 2 22 Medium 0 3e+05
9695 2939 10488 11439 10488 13937 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 3 24 Medium 0 1e+05
9716 4729 411 12086 411 13868 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 2 23 Medium 0 5e+04
9760 1681 0 12411 0 14616 0 2 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 22 Low 0 3e+05
9801 12022 1163 10260 1163 13941 2 1 15000+ 34-43 Single 1 57 Medium 0 5e+05
9827 10045 37061 12086 37061 13868 0 2 10000-15000 4-8 Single 2 22 Medium 0 5e+04
9838 11554 49220 10260 49220 12469 0 2 7500-10000 4-8 Single 3 24 Medium 0 3e+05
9940 5132 8836 13472 8836 15244 0 3 15000+ 4-8 Single 1 24 Low 0 5e+04

Let’s visualize our rejection regions in order to fine-tune exactly who we need to reject.

Drivers Under Age 25

compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` < 25) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Annual Mileage`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Total Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Annual Mileage") 

rej %>% filter(`Driver Age` < 25) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Annual Mileage`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Desired Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Annual Mileage") 

Comparing the two exhibits, we conclude that we’ll reject drivers with <10 years of driving experience who are married with 0-7500 annual mileage. This may be a group of high-risk (early marriage), low-experience drivers (low mileage) who we cannot charge adequate premiums to cover losses, at least in this aggregation of data.

Territory 4

compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` < 30) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Total Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Territory") 

rej %>% filter(`Driver Age` < 30) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Desired Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Territory") 

Territory 4 has the lowest charged premiums of all territories, yet the expected losses in this territory among married policyholders is very high. In general, Territory 4 has the lowest average loss, so we’ll reject young (<15 years driver experience) married drivers from territory 4.

Territory 2

compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 60) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Total Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Territory") 

rej %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 60) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Territory`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Territory`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Desired Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Territory") 

We’ll reject older (45+ years driver experience) from Territory 2.

Driving History (Accident Points, Conviction Points)

Accident Points:

compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 10) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Liability Limit`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Total Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Accident Points (AP) last 3 years") 

rej %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 10) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Accident Points (AP) last 3 years`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Liability Limit`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Desired Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Accident Points (AP) last 3 years") 

Unfortunately it seems as though we cannot safely perform rejections via this aggregation without inadvertently rejecting desired drivers. To be conservative here, we’ll reject all drivers with 2+ accident points in the last 3 years for all coverage of $100,000 liability and above. However, we can offer coverage at the $50,000 limit with a much higher AP relativity. We’ll try conviction points instead of accident points.

Conviction Points:

compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 10) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Liability Limit`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Total Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years") 

rej %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 10) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Liability Limit`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Desired Rejection: Average Projected Loss by Conviction Points (CP) last 3 years") 

From this exhibit, we choose to reject drivers with 3+ conviction points in the last 3 years. However, we want to allow them the least coverage at $50,000 liability, albeit with a high premium relativity.

However, in the present case, we cannot change the rating structure and must take judgement regarding this. We choose to not place restrictions on policyholders with 3+ conviction points in the past 3 years, because we will be making the assumption that no drivers have conviction points in any of policy years (PY) 2016, 2017, 2018.


Recall that we cannot use Credit Score in our underwriting guideline or rating mechanism. Interestingly, our observed and projected pure premiums both show the monotonic trend that lower credit scores incur higher losses.

# compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 85) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`, y = `Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(fill = `Annual Mileage`, stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean") + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`)


compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 10) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Credit Score`, y = `Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Credit Score`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Observed Pure Premium by Credit Score") 

compare.pp.capped %>% filter(`Driver Age` > 10) %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Credit Score`, y = `Predicted Pure Premium`)) + geom_bar(aes(fill = `Credit Score`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean", show.legend = TRUE) + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Predicted Pure Premium by Credit Score") 

Comparing the above two figures, we filtered down to drivers only ages 60+ and find that single drivers of age 60+ with low credit scores on average incur high losses. This is not caught in our model, so we need to reject this category somehow.

7. Automating and Applying UW Guidelines to 2019 Applicants

First we note that there is no overlap in vehicle numbers or policy numbers. In particular, no existing policy is attempting to add another vehicle.

apps <- read_excel("Dropbox/Actuary/proj/case-comp/GA/ga-csv/GA_Data - Applications.xlsx")

max(tbl$`Policy Number`)
## [1] 10000
# [1] 10000
min(apps$`Policy Number`)
## [1] 10001
# [1] 10001

max(tbl$`Vehicle Number`)
## [1] 15000
# [1] 15000
min(apps$`Policy Number`)
## [1] 10001
# [1] 15001

In summary, our underwriting guidelines are to reject any applicant who satisfies one of the following rows:

  1. 45+ Years Driver Experience & Single
  2. 35+ Years Driver Experience & Single & 0-7500 or 10000-15000 Annual Mileage
  3. <10 Years Driver Experience & Married & 0-7500 Annual Mileage
  4. <15 Years Driver Experience & Married & Territory 4

Ideally, we’ll allow the following but only at the lowest liability (with higher relativities to compensate). But for now, we’ll wholly still accept the following, but with increased rates (as the premiums will be naturally adjusted via relativities: 1/1.2/1.4/1.6)

  1. 2+ Accident Points (last 3 years)
  2. 3+ Conviction Points (last 3 years) <-> these recent data are incredible, so DEFINITELY do not use for underwriting guideline.

Now for #6, we would like to reject all. However, in a realistic setting, rejecting longterm loyal customers due to a sudden restriction in risk appetite reflects poorly on Cal Insurance. In terms of public relations and trust, it is much preferrable to retain customers to not have to provide introductory discounts for new customers with Cal Insurance (further analysis required to support this).

Programming the UW Guidelines

# implement UW guidelines as logic check to assign 0: reject, 1: accept

apps <- apps %>% mutate(`Driver Experience` = `Driver Age` - 15) # adjust age into driver experience
apps <- apps %>% mutate(`Decision` = 1) # default decisions to accept and reject in specific scenarios


for (i in 1:15000) {
  # 1: reject 45+ years driver experience + single
  if (apps$`Driver Experience`[i] >= 45 & apps$`Marital Status`[i] == "Single") {
    apps$Decision[i] <- 0
  }
  
  # 2: reject 35+ yrs driver exp + single + either low or mid-high annual mileage
  if (apps$`Driver Experience`[i] >= 35 & apps$`Marital Status`[i] == "Single" & (apps$`Annual Mileage`[i] == "0-7500" || apps$`Annual Mileage`[i] == "10000-15000") ) {
    apps$Decision[i] <- 0
  }
  
  # 3: reject <10 yrs driver exp + married + low mileage
  if (apps$`Driver Experience`[i] <= 10 & apps$`Marital Status`[i] == "Married" & apps$`Annual Mileage`[i] == "0-7500") {
    apps$Decision[i] <- 0
  }
  
  # 4: reject <15 yrs driver exp + married + territory 4
  if (apps$`Driver Experience`[i] <= 15 & apps$`Marital Status`[i] == "Married" & apps$Territory[i] == 4) {
    apps$Decision[i] <- 0
  }
  
  

}

print(paste0("The acceptance rate is: ", sum(apps$Decision)/length(apps$Decision) * 100, "%" ) ) # only reject 171 people
## [1] "The acceptance rate is: 98.86%"
# write into .csv
apps %>% select(`Vehicle Number`, `Decision`) %>% write.csv(file = "decisions.csv", )


# apps %>% select(`Vehicle Number`, `Decision`)  %>% qkable()

We only reject a very few applications here because we opt to not use incredible data (conviction points) or reject

Here’s a quick look at the applications we reject:

app.rej <- apps %>% filter(`Decision` == 0)
app.acc <- apps %>% filter(`Decision` == 1) # accepted applications

app.rej %>% slice(1:100) %>% qkable(height = "500px") # excerpt of people we reject
Vehicle Number Policy Year Policy Number Marital Status Driver Age Driver Age Band Annual Mileage Territory Credit Score Car Value Car Value Band Accident Points Liability Limit Physical Damage Deductible Conviction Points Base_PP Rel_Age Rel_Mileage Rel_Territory Rel_Car Rel_Accident Rel_Conviction Rel_Limit Rel_Deductible Charged Premium Driver Experience Decision
15011 2019 11950 Single 55 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 39110 30000-40000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1128.6000 40 0
15143 2019 14769 Single 77 70-79 15000+ 3 High 20000 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 839.8080 62 0
15381 2019 19695 Married 24 20-24 0-7500 2 Medium 10550 10000-20000 0 3e+05 500 1 1500 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.880 1.0 1.2 1.00 1.000 2439.3600 9 0
15386 2019 11282 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 4 Medium 12590 10000-20000 0 5e+04 250 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.045 370.7827 36 0
15401 2019 14122 Married 30 30-39 15000+ 4 Low 29340 20000-30000 1 1e+05 250 0 1500 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.000 1.2 1.0 0.88 1.045 1589.0688 15 0
15408 2019 15895 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 4 Medium 56350 40000+ 1 5e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.080 1.2 1.0 1.12 1.045 1456.1649 36 0
15508 2019 18825 Married 29 25-29 0-7500 4 Low 20090 20000-30000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1260.0000 14 0
15532 2019 10767 Single 96 90+ 0-7500 1 Medium 29440 20000-30000 0 1e+05 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.080 958.0032 81 0
15570 2019 10491 Married 28 25-29 15000+ 4 Medium 10940 10000-20000 1 5e+05 1000 0 1500 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.880 1.2 1.0 1.12 0.935 2388.6213 13 0
15784 2019 17651 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 2 High 39330 30000-40000 0 1e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.045 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.045 887.9474 35 0
15831 2019 15278 Married 26 25-29 15000+ 4 High 22570 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 1 1500 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.2 0.60 1.080 1679.6160 11 0
15836 2019 13190 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 3 High 27880 20000-30000 0 1e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 0.935 622.0368 36 0
15971 2019 17901 Single 52 50-59 0-7500 3 High 95950 40000+ 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.080 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 529.0790 37 0
16076 2019 18996 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 3 High 28240 20000-30000 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 846.7200 35 0
16097 2019 13917 Single 56 50-59 10000-15000 1 Low 22500 20000-30000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1440.0000 41 0
16285 2019 16536 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 1 Low 35950 30000-40000 1 1e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.045 1.2 1.0 0.88 1.045 1660.5769 36 0
16383 2019 13714 Single 55 50-59 0-7500 4 High 31360 30000-40000 0 1e+05 100 1 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.0 1.2 0.88 1.080 800.8907 40 0
16448 2019 18604 Single 74 70-79 0-7500 4 High 17420 10000-20000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 383.2013 59 0
16502 2019 12951 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 4 High 75490 40000+ 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 1085.7370 35 0
16563 2019 14487 Single 52 50-59 0-7500 2 High 20980 20000-30000 0 5e+05 500 1 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.2 1.12 1.000 1241.8560 37 0
16566 2019 12270 Married 28 25-29 0-7500 4 High 38470 30000-40000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 853.2216 13 0
16593 2019 12976 Single 54 50-59 0-7500 2 High 78260 40000+ 0 5e+05 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.080 1207.0840 39 0
16597 2019 11754 Single 63 60-69 0-7500 4 High 94850 40000+ 0 5e+05 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.080 877.8793 48 0
16730 2019 17163 Single 59 50-59 0-7500 2 Medium 47950 40000+ 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 1117.6704 44 0
16745 2019 12495 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 2 Low 25740 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 855.3600 36 0
17033 2019 16611 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 4 High 23440 20000-30000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 703.7184 35 0
17095 2019 14138 Single 53 50-59 10000-15000 4 Medium 86160 40000+ 0 1e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.080 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.000 912.3840 38 0
17188 2019 14888 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 2 Low 36320 30000-40000 1 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.045 1.2 1.0 0.60 1.080 750.8350 36 0
17330 2019 14570 Married 30 30-39 10000-15000 4 High 29170 20000-30000 0 1e+05 250 0 1500 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.045 1103.5200 15 0
17381 2019 18039 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 1 High 13290 10000-20000 0 5e+04 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.60 0.935 497.6294 35 0
17391 2019 13963 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 15490 10000-20000 1 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.880 1.2 1.0 1.00 1.000 1140.4800 36 0
17408 2019 18332 Single 55 50-59 0-7500 3 High 16590 10000-20000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 665.2800 40 0
17475 2019 16397 Single 58 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 32580 30000-40000 1 3e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.045 1.2 1.0 1.00 1.045 1887.0192 43 0
17726 2019 10859 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 2 Low 28360 20000-30000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1320.0000 35 0
17740 2019 19902 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 4 High 14590 10000-20000 0 3e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.045 882.8160 35 0
17748 2019 11324 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 4 High 48720 40000+ 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 812.8512 36 0
17811 2019 12670 Single 54 50-59 0-7500 4 High 22730 20000-30000 0 1e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.045 617.9712 39 0
17896 2019 16212 Married 29 25-29 10000-15000 4 Medium 14360 10000-20000 0 3e+05 500 1 1500 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.2 1.00 1.000 1900.8000 14 0
17921 2019 15497 Single 52 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 95150 40000+ 0 3e+05 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.080 1259.7120 37 0
17933 2019 12202 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 4 Low 27230 20000-30000 0 1e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.045 617.9712 36 0
18033 2019 13837 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 1 High 21280 20000-30000 0 1e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.000 887.0400 35 0
18084 2019 17627 Single 53 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 28990 20000-30000 0 1e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.000 950.4000 38 0
18164 2019 11406 Single 52 50-59 0-7500 2 High 83140 40000+ 0 5e+05 1000 1 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.080 1.0 1.2 1.12 0.935 1254.0262 37 0
18179 2019 16759 Married 24 20-24 0-7500 4 Low 32350 30000-40000 1 5e+05 100 0 1500 2.0 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.2 1.0 1.12 1.080 2548.2885 9 0
18189 2019 13544 Single 52 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 73850 40000+ 1 1e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.080 1.2 1.0 0.88 0.935 1151.6567 37 0
18237 2019 18602 Married 27 25-29 0-7500 4 Medium 34620 30000-40000 0 1e+05 500 0 1500 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.000 1158.6960 12 0
18573 2019 10850 Married 28 25-29 7500-10000 4 High 7770 0-10000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.720 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 755.8272 13 0
18600 2019 16671 Married 30 30-39 10000-15000 4 High 21190 20000-30000 0 1e+05 1000 0 1500 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 0.935 987.3600 15 0
18681 2019 10736 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 4 High 35290 30000-40000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 735.3857 36 0
18816 2019 16241 Single 55 50-59 0-7500 1 Low 87800 40000+ 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1088.6400 40 0
18900 2019 15798 Single 62 60-69 15000+ 1 High 12250 10000-20000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.880 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1520.6400 47 0
19075 2019 16890 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 2 High 33690 30000-40000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.045 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 625.6958 36 0
19173 2019 13588 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 2 High 18410 10000-20000 0 5e+04 250 1 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.880 1.0 1.2 0.60 1.045 611.7915 35 0
19271 2019 16704 Married 25 25-29 0-7500 3 High 15780 10000-20000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 1306.2773 10 0
19361 2019 18789 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 3 Medium 61480 40000+ 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 1221.4541 35 0
19428 2019 19903 Single 53 50-59 10000-15000 2 High 24910 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 855.3600 38 0
19490 2019 15786 Single 57 50-59 0-7500 3 Medium 11750 10000-20000 0 5e+04 250 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.045 417.1306 42 0
19504 2019 17946 Single 63 60-69 10000-15000 2 Medium 33110 30000-40000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1379.4000 48 0
19531 2019 10611 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 4 High 21450 20000-30000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 1005.3120 36 0
19615 2019 19559 Married 29 25-29 15000+ 4 Medium 18170 10000-20000 0 3e+05 100 1 1500 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.2 1.00 1.080 2463.4368 14 0
19637 2019 14221 Single 75 70-79 15000+ 4 High 19250 10000-20000 0 5e+05 250 1 1500 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.2 1.12 1.045 1423.8056 60 0
19656 2019 12538 Single 67 60-69 10000-15000 1 Medium 2650 0-10000 1 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.720 1.2 1.0 1.12 1.000 1393.4592 52 0
19708 2019 18824 Single 62 60-69 10000-15000 3 High 8970 0-10000 0 5e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.720 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.045 910.1030 47 0
19832 2019 12178 Single 51 50-59 0-7500 3 Medium 19100 10000-20000 0 5e+05 250 1 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.2 1.12 1.045 934.3725 36 0
19931 2019 11860 Single 56 50-59 0-7500 4 Medium 71450 40000+ 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 760.0159 41 0
19963 2019 19380 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 2 Low 23930 20000-30000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 967.6128 35 0
20070 2019 12634 Single 65 60-69 15000+ 1 Medium 36560 30000-40000 0 5e+05 1000 1 1500 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.045 1.0 1.2 1.12 0.935 2269.1902 50 0
20103 2019 14470 Married 28 25-29 15000+ 4 Low 36360 30000-40000 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 2528.0640 13 0
20132 2019 17793 Single 57 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 67350 40000+ 1 1e+05 100 1 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.080 1.2 1.2 0.88 1.080 2128.4094 42 0
20454 2019 13536 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 39340 30000-40000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1128.6000 36 0
20677 2019 18112 Single 55 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 18580 10000-20000 0 3e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.880 1.0 1.0 1.00 0.935 1184.8320 40 0
20813 2019 18737 Single 57 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 12040 10000-20000 0 1e+05 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.080 903.2602 42 0
20923 2019 12578 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 2 Medium 24350 20000-30000 0 1e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.000 1161.6000 36 0
21213 2019 19589 Married 27 25-29 10000-15000 4 Medium 13020 10000-20000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 1026.4320 12 0
21253 2019 18425 Single 52 50-59 0-7500 3 Low 22190 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 489.8880 37 0
21258 2019 11584 Single 54 50-59 0-7500 3 High 26000 20000-30000 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 846.7200 39 0
21354 2019 18700 Single 54 50-59 10000-15000 4 High 13700 10000-20000 0 5e+04 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.045 529.6896 39 0
21425 2019 18333 Single 53 50-59 10000-15000 4 Low 59790 40000+ 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.080 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1036.8000 38 0
21446 2019 19821 Single 66 60-69 0-7500 3 High 96860 40000+ 1 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.080 1.2 1.0 1.12 0.935 1026.0214 51 0
21454 2019 10966 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 25120 20000-30000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 1130.9760 35 0
21642 2019 14574 Single 51 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 19030 10000-20000 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 1064.4480 36 0
21724 2019 18296 Single 52 50-59 0-7500 3 High 39550 30000-40000 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 884.8224 37 0
21844 2019 19932 Single 53 50-59 10000-15000 3 Low 48240 40000+ 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.080 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 755.8272 38 0
22023 2019 10929 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 32350 30000-40000 0 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.12 0.935 1575.8266 35 0
22080 2019 11807 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 1 Low 4470 0-10000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.720 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 1036.8000 35 0
22259 2019 19451 Married 30 30-39 7500-10000 4 High 39660 30000-40000 0 5e+05 500 0 1500 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.045 1.0 1.0 1.12 1.000 1264.0320 15 0
22402 2019 18196 Single 54 50-59 0-7500 2 High 15600 10000-20000 0 1e+05 500 1 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.880 1.0 1.2 0.88 1.000 858.6547 39 0
22436 2019 13613 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 1 Low 2440 0-10000 0 3e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.720 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.000 725.7600 35 0
22529 2019 18387 Single 55 50-59 0-7500 4 Low 20240 20000-30000 0 3e+05 250 1 1500 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.2 1.00 1.045 842.6880 40 0
22645 2019 19620 Single 88 80-89 15000+ 2 High 28750 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 1026.4320 73 0
22951 2019 15405 Married 29 25-29 10000-15000 4 Low 20390 20000-30000 0 1e+05 1000 0 1500 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.88 0.935 1481.0400 14 0
23083 2019 14385 Single 52 50-59 0-7500 2 Low 35600 30000-40000 0 5e+04 250 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.045 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.045 605.4187 37 0
23229 2019 12391 Single 50 50-59 10000-15000 2 High 28630 20000-30000 1 5e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.000 1.2 1.0 1.12 0.935 1658.7648 35 0
23287 2019 10301 Single 52 50-59 10000-15000 1 High 23660 20000-30000 0 3e+05 1000 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.000 1.0 1.0 1.00 0.935 1346.4000 37 0
23335 2019 12440 Married 23 20-24 0-7500 3 Low 17050 10000-20000 0 1e+05 250 1 1500 2.0 0.7 0.9 0.880 1.0 1.2 0.88 1.045 1835.3745 8 0
23340 2019 15861 Single 54 50-59 10000-15000 3 Medium 22440 20000-30000 1 1e+05 250 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.000 1.2 1.0 0.88 1.045 1191.8016 39 0
23366 2019 16578 Single 52 50-59 10000-15000 2 High 62070 40000+ 1 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.080 1.2 1.0 0.60 1.080 1108.5466 37 0
23473 2019 18110 Single 50 50-59 0-7500 1 Low 22940 20000-30000 0 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.000 1.0 1.0 0.60 1.080 653.1840 35 0
23485 2019 11138 Single 52 50-59 10000-15000 3 High 8970 0-10000 1 5e+04 100 0 1500 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.720 1.2 1.0 0.60 1.080 604.6618 37 0
23499 2019 10589 Single 53 50-59 10000-15000 2 Medium 11930 10000-20000 0 1e+05 500 0 1500 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.880 1.0 1.0 0.88 1.000 1022.2080 38 0

Visualizing the Rejection Region

Here are a few exhibits of their structures.

app.rej %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Annual Mileage`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill = `Annual Mileage`), stat = "count") + facet_grid(. ~ `Driver Age Band`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Distribution of Annual Mileage of Rejected Applicants by Driver Age Band")

app.rej %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Age Band`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill = `Driver Age Band`), stat = "count") + facet_grid(. ~ `Car Value Band`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Distribution of Driver Age of Rejected Applicants by Car Value")

8. Projecting Premiums

We would like to estimate the projected charged premiums in 2020, but this is guaranteed to yield a bad result. Conviction points as a statistic is surely broken in the current database, and the new applicants’ data are incomplete (only 2018 conviction points). We’ll populate the data with zeros with the understanding that our results will be skewed.

If we extrapolate these (purely for projection reasons and not in practice as this is illegal) to assign premiums as if all policyholders have zero Conviction Points for both 2016 and 2017, where we have the data for 2018. We do the same for Accident Points. Recall our multiplicative rating formula was:

\[ \begin{align*} \text{Premium} &= \text{(Base Pure Premium)} \times \text{[(3 yr Accident Points)} \times \text{(3 yr Conviction Points)]} \\ & \qquad \times \text{(Annual Mileage)} \times \text{(Driving Experience)} \times \text{(Physical Damage Deductible)} \\ & \qquad \times \text{(Liability Limit)} \times \text{(Car Value)} \times \text{(Multi-Car)} \times \text{(Marital Status)} \times \text{(Territory)} \end{align*} \]

We’ll perform this calculation in Excel again, simply for ease and speed of index/match in Excel as this is a one-time calculation.

Here are some exhibits of the projected premium structure.

app.acc %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Age Band`, y = `Charged Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill = `Driver Age Band`), stat = "summary", fun.y = "mean") + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Projected Average Charged Premium")

app.acc %>% ggplot(aes(x = `Driver Age Band`, y = `Charged Premium`)) + geom_bar( aes(fill = `Driver Age Band`), stat = "identity") + facet_grid(. ~ `Marital Status`) + theme(legend.position = "bottom", axis.text.x = element_blank(), axis.ticks.x = element_blank()) + ggtitle("Projected Total Charged Premium")

We can use these models as a (conservative) under-estimate of the expected premiums. These figures use the 3-year accident and conviction point relativities based only on 1 year, and zeros for the other two years. Because we are requiring that applicants self-report past conviction and accident history, we can expect a proportion of policies to accurately reflect a number of accidents and convictions that result in higher rates.


Thank you for reviewing this document. It’s a pleasure to be a part of the intern team with you all. Please don’t hesitate to pull me aside for a conversation if you have any questions or feedback.